Don’t Miss Silver After Missing Gold! Are You Bullish on Gold-Silver Ratio to Compress?
Over the past 6 months, $Silver - main 2512(SImain)$ have surged more than 30%, breaking through $46/oz and reaching a 14-year high. With gold and silver taking turns to hit multi-year highs, we may now be entering the second stage of the precious metals bull run.
Gold-Silver Ratio at 1:81: Still Has Upside Potential?
Historically, the gold-silver ratio sat at 1:16. After WWII, it stabilized around 40–50, and in recent years between 60–80. Today, the ratio is at 1:81. Is that really reasonable?
Meanwhile, global silver reserves may only last 20 more years, while demand from clean energy, solar, and semiconductors is booming.
Gold leads, silver follows: In every major gold bull run, gold rallies first, then silver outperforms in stage two. Gold is consolidating near highs, while silver has just broken out.
Where is Silver Going?
History shows that onve silver breaks $35, it usually rallies toward $49.
Some investors are expecting silver to test $70–100; if the gold-silver ratio compresses to 30 or even 15, silver could surge to $150–300.
However, the opposite warns of pullback given silver’s 40% YTD.
Questions for Discussion
Do you believe the gold-silver ratio will fall back to 50… or even 30?
Are you expecting silver to hit $100 or pullback give new all time highs?
You may have missed gold, but will you let silver slip away too?
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金银比会回落到50还是30？
受市场趋势和经济状况的影响，金银比率历来在极端之间波动。鉴于白银倾向于跟随黄金走势并放大百分比涨幅，该比率向历史平均水平的修正似乎是合理的。一些分析师预测，在白银可能突破50美元¹的推动下，该比率可能会降至60或更低。
白银会触及100美元还是在历史新高之前回调？
银价正接近关键拐点，有可能突破50美元。如果发生这种情况，可能会引发价格快速上涨至75美元，最终上涨至100美元。分析师预计，这将在不久的将来发生，可能是由伦敦金银市场协会（LBMA）的短缺或白银投资需求增加推动的
@老虎事件 @Tiger_SG @imamf @乌斯哇
Silver’s breakout above $46/oz is significant. Historically, once it clears $35, it often pushes toward $49 or higher. With gold consolidating, silver could now lead the second stage of the precious metals rally. While short-term pullbacks are possible after its big YTD move, long-term fundamentals remain supportive.
I wouldn’t be surprised if silver tests $70–100, especially if the ratio narrows. Volatility will be part of the ride, but that’s silver’s nature. I may have missed gold’s early run, but I don’t want to overlook silver given its momentum and demand story.
@Tiger_SG @TigerStars @Tiger_comments
To reach 30, silver must double gold’s pace; a condition last seen in the 1970s commodity boom. That would require monetary easing, renewed inflation waves, and supply shortages, all converging, possible, but aggressive.
Technically, silver’s breakout above $35-$37 could open the path to $50 (2021/2011 highs); crossing that may trigger momentum toward $75–$100, though such levels likely need a structural repricing of real assets amid fiat debasement.
Short term, overbought conditions suggest a pullback to $32–$33 is healthy before another leg higher.
Personally, I view silver as the late-cycle leverage on gold; volatile, but with asymmetric upside. Missing gold is forgivable; missing silver’s next run could be costlier.
I don’t think silver will hit $100. I do expect a pullback soon unless there are many piling into it because gold has gotten out of reach and they want commodities as part of their portfolio to ride the uncertain times ahead. Also, these uncertainties may not last and that will send both gold and silver dropping.
I do not buy comodities as they are speculative to me. There is no basis for growth innately and hence no basic for price rallies. They urge based on uncertainties and supply-demand imbalance. They don’t generate value for me on their own.
I believe that the current upward momentum in silver has more legroom to grow. Fortunately I have bought $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$ earlier on and I am so happy that I am sitting on 44% capital appreciation.
SLV is designed to track the spot price of silver bullion offering me direct exposure to Silver without the hassle of physical storage.
I bought SLV as a tactical bet against inflation and economic uncertainty.
@Tiger_SG @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @CaptainTiger @TigerClub
至于白银是否能冲上100美元，我的态度更谨慎。白银市场相对金市波动更大、流动性更低，一旦投机资金涌入，价格会出现短期暴涨，但同时也伴随剧烈回调。若通胀预期再度升温、供应受限，白银突破历史高点（50美元附近）并非不可能，但要直接翻倍到100美元，需要极端的地缘或金融危机触发。
对个人投资而言，如果之前错过了黄金的主升段，我不会盲目追高白银。更稳健的做法是逢回调分批布局，控制仓位，把白银视为组合的对冲和成长题材，而不是孤注一掷的赌注。市场永远有下一次机会，不必因错过黄金而情绪化追逐白银。
Check them in the history - “community distribution“
黃金領先，白銀緊隨其後：在每一次主要的黃金牛市中，黃金首先上漲，然後白銀在第二階段表現優於大盤。黃金在高位附近盤整，白銀剛剛破位。