To The Moon

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is entering November 2025 with a notable historical edge, as 5 decades of seasonality data show it is the strongest month of the year for the benchmark index.

According to insights from charting platform TrendSpider shared in an X post on 01 Nov 2025:

• Over the past 50 years, the month of November has delivered a 73% win rate and an average return of more than +2%, traditionally setting the tone for a positive year-end stretch. (see below)

This seasonal strength comes as the market trades near record highs and corporate earnings remain broadly resilient.

At the close of Fri, 31 Oct 2025’s session, the index was at 6,840, up +0.2%, while year-to-date the S&P 500 has rallied +16.56%. (see below)

S&P 500 Rally Drivers.

Notably, artificial intelligence (AI)-linked giants remain at the center of the market narrative, with (a) chipmakers such as $NVIDIA(NVDA)$, (b) cloud platforms, and (c) software firms continuing to command investor attention and drive a disproportionate share of index gains.

Overall, the S&P 500’s narrow leadership has been defined by companies tied to AI infrastructure and applications, helping push valuations higher even as other sectors lag. 

In this line, continued strength from AI bellwethers could extend the rally, though the market may be more vulnerable if enthusiasm in the sector moderates.

At the same time, major US companies are still exceeding profit expectations at a higher-than-average rate, with margins remaining above their 5-year trend for a 6th consecutive quarter.

Historically, strong year-end rallies are more sustainable when participation widens across sectors.

Market analysts note that lagging areas, such as small-cap equities, may need to join the advance to avoid a pullback led by current leaders.

Notably, this comes as several Wall Street analysts maintain a bullish outlook for the benchmark, with some projecting that the index could rise as much as 7,000 by the end of 2025, primarily driven by companies in the AI space.

Overall, whether gains broaden or remain concentrated, may determine how durable the rally proves, but for now, historical patterns and current market conditions suggest the bull case retains the upper hand.

My Viewpoints : (mine only)

Assuming, S&P 500 breaching the 7,000 level holds true, based off last Friday’s closing, there is only a limiting upside of +160 points or +2.34% only.

Should we be even looking at investing in the S&P 500 index OR directly in ‘selected’ 500 component stocks that make up the index ?

Firstly, the post has already generalized where the AI-led growth will be.

Namely:

• Chipmaker.

• Cloud platforms.

• Software firms.

If we follow the hints, the 3 no-brainer stocks “safe” to invest will be the obvious - GOOG, MSFT and AMZN.

However, these mega caps are at their all-time high with YTD gains clocking in at +47.84%, +23.71% and +10.90% respectively.

Realistically, how much higher do you expect the 3 mega caps, to rise further by end 2025 and into 2026 ?

During recent earnings calls, AMZN, GOOG & MSFT have all announced that they would increase their capex to support growing demand for AI and cloud services. (see below)

To find "fair value" stocks with high growth potential, one could explore companies that are:

• Critical suppliers to AMZN, MSFT or GOOG AI build-out.

• Lagging software / cloud companies expected to catch up and trading at more reasonable valuations.

Worthy Investment ?

Below is one possible stock that meets above criteria.

$Broadcom(AVGO)$

Value Proposition:

• AVGO is a diversified tech company that is a major designer of custom AI chips for large cloud providers (eg GOOG).

• It is also a key player in the networking & connectivity components vital for stitching together massive AI data centers.

• It offers exposure to the AI theme but is less concentrated than NVIDIA, often trading at a more moderate valuation relative to its growth prospects.

Q3 2025 Earnings Results.

For 2025’s third quarter, AVGO handed in a credible earnings report.

• Revenue: $15,952 million vs Q3 2024’s $13,072 million, that’s a +22% YoY gain. (see below)

• Earnings per share (non-GAAP) : $1.69 vs Q3 2024’s $1.24, that’s a whooping +36.29% YoY gain. (see below)

• Net income: $4,140 million vs Q3 2024’s -$1,875 million, that’s a +320.8% YoY gain.

• Free cash flow (FCF): $7,024 million vs Q3 2024’s $4,791 million, that’s a +46.61% YoY increase.

Q4 2025 Guidance:

• Revenue guidance : approximately $17,400 million vs Q4 2024’s $14,054 million, that’s a +23.81% YoY gain.

Other Pluses.

Rounding up, below are reasons why AVGO is a compelling investment.

• AVGO is a leading supplier of custom AI accelerator chips (ASICs), networking, and cloud infrastructure chips.

• Analysts have a consensus rating of "Strong Buy" with price targets averaging around $354 - $420 within the next 12 months.

• For 2026, AVGO management forecasts at least $10 billion in AI-related AI chip orders.

• Despite a high P/E ratio of approximately 94, AVGO benefits from niche AI semiconductor dominance, creating a strong competitive moat.

Technical Analysis.

AVGO technical indicators as of Fri, 31 Oct 2025 closing.

Moving Averages.

AVGO’s moving averages for 20-day, 50-day and 200-day are $343.76, 332.50 & $255.13 respectively.

AVGO’s Friday closing price of $369.63 sits above the 3 moving averages, clearly suggesing:

• A bullish trend in the short term.

• And further supporting sustained upward momentum over the medium term.

• Finally, showing a strong long-term uptrend and indicating solid foundational strength.

Relative Strength Index (RSI).

• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is about 61.39, which is in the neutral to slightly bullish range, indicating the stock is not overbought or oversold, suggesting room for further upward movement without immediate risk of a pullback.

AVGO’s 14-Day RSI of 61.39 places AVGO in the neutral/ slightly bullish momentum zone, below the traditional overbought threshold.

It suggests room for further upward movement without immediate risk of a pullback.

With a Q3 2025 AI revenue surged 63%, a raised Q4 2025 guidance and a bullish technical momentum, is it clear why AVGO is a worthy investment now.

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.

• Meta Q3 Earnings Show Mistake Repeating ! Tue, 04 November. Idea post.

• PLTR Breaks $210, Post 03 Nov Earnings ? Mon, 03 November. Idea post.

• IONQ expensive ? Buy quantum ETF, WQTM ! Sun, 02 November. Idea post.

• Do you think it makes sense to invest in the S&P 500 index ’?

• Do you think AVGO make a better alternate investment compared to the S&P 500 index ?

If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ?

Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you.

@Daily_Discussion

@TigerPM

@TigerStars

@Tiger_SG

@TigerEvents