To The Moon

By now everyone interested in the latest development on Tiktok would have learnt about its CEO Mr Chew Shou Zi ‘s lost cause testification before the US Congress - Energy and Commerce Committee on Thu, 24 Mar 2023.

Watching the “painful” interrogation session, it showed the world, the officials in the Committee who presided over the questioning are clearly unfit, based on their conduct, “colonial behaviour” throughout and the due respect accorded.

Definitely not first world.

With a growing “concern” over the app’s threat to US national security picking up pace, an outright ban seems inevitable.

Beneficiaries From The Ban

US social media apps that stands to benefit :

• $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ - Instagram

• $Alphabet(GOOG)$ - YouTube Shorts

• $Snap Inc(SNAP)$ - Snapchat Spotlight.

I wonder which of the above social media app will be able to snatch the lion’s share of the $431 Billion in market value left vacant by Tiktok, according to Bernstein analysis - Wall Street's premier sell-side research and brokerage firm.

Referencing India’s ban of Tiktok, Bernstein analysis was able to adapt & model a possible outcome :

• Shares of YouTube Shorts (parent Alphabet) could jump as much as +20% gain

• Shares of Instagram Reels (parent Meta) could be in line for as much as a +30% gain

• Shares of Snapchat Spotlight (parent Snap) could surge as much as +50% gain

Repercussions from an outright Tiktok ban.

(1) Loss of income.

The proposed TikTok ban would be a crushing blow to content creators and business owners who rely upon the platform for income and social connectivity.

US-based “inferior” rivals in the platform space eg Instagram, YouTube, Snapchat etc.. don’t furnish the same potential for ‘virality’.

Perhaps this might lead to the 150 Million (??) ex-Tiktok content creators to file for unemployment claims ? LOL !!

This might be the silver lining that serves to bring down the US economic outlook.

Something that the Fed might be happy to witness so that they could happily declare a victory against rising inflation ?

US Constitution - First Amendment

(2) Violation of US Constitution’s First Amendment ?

Politically, banning TikTok violates the First Amendment.

The government can’t impose this type of total ban unless it’s necessary to prevent extremely serious, immediate harm to national security.

There’s no public evidence of that type of harm, and a ban would not be the only option for addressing that harm if it did exist,” said Jenna Leventoff - American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU)’s senior policy counsel.

More importantly - will this “possible ban” set the precedence for any US governing body, current or future to gradually erodes the foundation ?

I cannot think of a quote more apt than George Orwell’s Animal Farm - “All animals are equal but some are more equal” ? Do you concur ?

(3) Political Suicide ?

It has been confirmed that citizens of United States will be going to the poll on 5 Nov 2024.

During the congressional meeting last week, it has been confirmed by Tiktok CEO that the apps is currently used by more than 150 Million American users monthly.

Will there be a political backlash to the tune of 150 Million voters, for the incumbent government or political party; who outrightly ban Tiktok ?

Which party (Democratic or Republican) is willing to be the “peace offering” duck and stick its neck on the chopping board ?

Politicians will need to tread carefully to ban Tiktok that is extremely popular… with voters (aged 18-45).

(4) Economic Reprisal From China ?

Allowing my imagination to run wild without inhibitions.

Like it or not, China has been “mild” in the manner in which US conducts its bullying of Chinese enterprises.

Obvious case is Huawei. So far, the government did not outright retaliate as this would play into the hands that it is the mastermind behind the curtain.

But if US assumes the same tactics could be re-deployed this time round on Tiktok, they had better tread carefully this time round before letting this possible last straw breaks the camel’s back.

If there is a strikeback, it will be decisive, swift and deadly.

What could be more effective than bringing disruptions and chaos to the US.

The US banking sector is still unstable currently. On the surface it looks as though its business as usual. However there is a lot of fear especially about the AT1 bonds (valued at $275 Billion) still in circulation; a ticking time bomb.

Up to the minute - latest US Debt

With a debt level that topples $31.5 Trillion; wouldn’t you agree that this is a ticking time bomb in itself waiting to explode.

What catalyst could be deployed to tip the scale and cause panic once again to the Banking sector and the stock market ?

China's stake in US Treasuries

Above is the latest Top 5 countries’ holdings of US Treasuries or long term debt.

US is living from hand to mouth with money that they don’t have and a big fat deficit account.

What if China were to liquidate just 50% of its ($859 Billion) holdings of US Treasuries ?

Will it bring about a Financial Tsunami that will topple US ?

Just the mere mention of such retaliation would have sent fear rippling across the US.

Of course, this is just my imagination.

Is US certain that China will not retaliate if it decides to ban Tiktok ?

Who could be 100% certain ?

What Is Important - My View.

Without sounding disrespectful or condescending, I feel strongly that the older people running US, US agencies etc.. needs to realize that banning TikTok will not address the underlying national security concerns surrounding (1) User data and (2) Privacy,

Assuming this is the “real” crux of the issues highlighted by these twilights officials.

The 2 precious elements is a “common” denominator across any apps and devices hosting apps.

This begs the question of how many more of apps-sanction will it take to achieve “safety” in the cyberage ?

Crawling back into a cave and seal it shut definitely works. LOL !

Therefore, given the (a) limited benefits and (b) all sorts of opportunity costs to be incurred to ban Tiktok, I strongly recommend that these “old and dusty” legislators should minimally get themselves “upgraded” through education, reading up, learn from the expertise with full comprehension.

Then consider what I feel is a proper and viable avenue :

• Establish a more comprehensive data privacy protection framework

• Push for mitigation strategies.

• Encourage world wide adoption and in the process; foster a decentralized but community-based setup that will be universally accepted for businesses.

• There is a need to de-couple Businesses (good ideas, innovations etc..) from Politics that in my opinion should have no place or stake in the business realms.

Tiktok CEO has attempted but failed miserably to elaborate on “Project Texas” that fits the above mentioned pointers.

It had fallen on deaf ears of a Committee whose minds have been shut closed even before interrogation has commenced. A Committee that was hell bent on a witch hunt.

• Do you think a ban on Tiktok will sent the 3 US apps - Meta, Snap and Alphabet soaring ?

• Do you think that there are more downsides vs upside with a Tiktok ban ?

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