To The Moon

Last week, under the news that the conflict in the Middle East eased, gold and silver bulls showed signs of cashing in profits, which triggered a sharp correction in gold and silver prices. The 5-day moving average tracking is very effective. After the "squeeze" trend of gold prices, falling below the 5-day moving average will often trigger a relatively large correction, and the correction is started by a single-day sharp drop, so last week's decline is very close to the previous trend, and it will break through 2450 again It takes a longer time to accumulate energy and cooperate with the news. The current gold and silver prices have entered a turbulent mode. Of course, turmoil is not a bad thing, especially for silver prices. After the turmoil falls, it will be a good time to enter the ma

Hello everyone! Today I want to share some macro analysis with you! Hope it can help you!1.Friday (April 26) gold prices rose significantly. However, the current market generally tends to be bearish on the outlook for gold, with the main concern being that inflation could trigger monetary tightening if it is not effectively controlled. The gold market is at risk of its first weekly decline in six weeks, a trend that reflects easing market sentiment and a shift in expectations for U.S. monetary policy. At the same time, recent economic data releases in the United States are showing mixed signals and increasing market volatility. $Gold - main 2406(GCmain)$ On the one hand, the data showed a sharp slowdown in economic growth, which usually suppor

Affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and fluctuations in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, the contradiction in risk appetite in the capital market has become increasingly prominent, and commodity prices have also entered a stage of high volatility.Taking gold as an example, the price of gold has experienced a correction after experiencing the "crazy growth" . On April 22 local time, COMEX gold futures for June delivery fell 3.01%, the largest one-day drop since June 2022.Two factors "suppress" precious metalsFor a long time, geopolitics has been the first factor affecting the prices of gold and silver. With the gradual escalation of tensions in the Middle East, the market's demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and silver has also increased simultaneously. Howeve

As speculated, news of the conflict between Israel and Iran has subsided, which has prompted a pullback in gold, and you may have to wait for a while to chase higher. For gold trading this year, the importance of finding a good time and a low position is relatively high, and it is not easy to chase ups and downs.The correction of gold With a long green line on Monday to determine a larger pullback/retracement time span, coupled with the more violent fall of silver (it has also been recommended to short silver and long gold to deal with this round of market), we expect gold to be short in the short term will not Reverse quickly.But how to judge the low point of the callback that everyone is more concerned about? First of all, it is certain that it is likely that it will be difficult for sho

On Friday, Israel appeared to be about to "retaliate" against Iran, causing crude oil and gold prices to soar and US stocks to plummet. Although both Israel and Iran soon came out to clarify, the Iranian side said that it intercepted the drone that attacked and did not cause too much loss, which caused a sharp retreat in the follow-up market.This phenomenon shows that the two sides of the conflict do not want to make things too big, but the financial market does not seem to buy the result, and the price fluctuation suddenly becomes very manic.The impact of the conflict on the US stock indexThe widening situation in the Middle East has weakened the market's sensitivity to news of the Fed's interest rate cut and increased concerns about war fears. Although there was a sharp rebound on Friday

With the release of various economic data in the United States and the speeches of the Federal Reserve Chairman and major officials, the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June has been extremely extreme.When we have been used to the good news, the small bad news will be particularly dazzling, which is exactly the case in the current market. March-May is another pricing of the Fed's interest rate cut path. The rate cut is not as fast as expected, and the market will also fall into shock, with different impacts on various commodities.First, the price of varieties with sufficient interest rate cut expectations began to fluctuateThe varieties whose price fluctuation is closely related to the expectation of interest rate cut are the varieties that have fully

At 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday, March 14th, the US Department of Labor released the PPI data for February, which exceeded expectations in terms of year-on-year, month-on-month and core PPI year-on-year data. Relaying the previous CPI data, it further continued to imply the stubbornness of inflation.Data show that the PPI of the United States warmed up beyond expectations in February, rising by 1.6% year-on-year, and the previous value was 1.2%.Far exceeding the expected 0.9%; PPI accelerated by 0.6% month-on-month,It is twice the expected value，The previous value is 0.3%.PictureThe core PPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 2% year-on-year, which was the same as the previous value.Exceeding expectations by 1.9%;The core PPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, which was less than th

When gold was in 1450 position, we had boldly assumed that the current bull market of gold could rise to 2200-2300. At that time, many people didn't understand that the Federal Reserve was about to tighten at that time, and there was no reason for gold to enter a big bull market. However, the power of the market itself (graph) still proves that the real relationship between supply and demand has been included in the market. Now, with the new high coming earlier than expected, we need to consider whether 2300 will still be the upper limit of gold.This is a picture that I like to show you in online and offline lectures over the past year, and it is also the reason why I have always been optimistic about gold. 2263 is the lowest bull market target price that gold can reach according to the pe

In the first two months of 2024, the Japanese stock market continued to be strong, in which the Nikkei 225 index rose by more than 19% in the year ending March 5, while it rose by 28.2% in 2023. The rally was fueled by ultra-loose monetary policy in the Japanese stock market, which was further fueled by the magnification of overseas profits of Japanese companies in the context of the depreciation of the yen.In the short term, the Bank of Japan will not withdraw from QEE soon, and it will take time for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Driven by the slowdown of economic growth and loose monetary policy, the depreciation trend of the yen will not be reversed, and the Japanese stock market bubble will continue to expand. In the medium term, with Japan's inflation reaching the policy

The suspense in the US stock market has settled with the rising of NVIDIA, the leading eldest brother, and the risk appetite continues to support the upward attack of bulls. At the same time, crude oil prices also slowly made a breakthrough, It is particularly worth mentioning that after a wave of rising in the weekend, gold returned to the vicinity of the previous historical high point. The competition here is expected to determine whether the bull market can restart in the near future.The 2090 area is the key price of gold triple head before, and it is also the watershed of long-short conversion after the record high. Interestingly, this Friday will be a new non-farm day. According to past experience, when faced with key support and resistance, risk events will also be potential driving

Just entering March, in the absence of obvious special news, gold, US stocks and crude oil all rose sharply last Friday night, not to mention the rapid upward trend of Bitcoin a few days ago. This trend of market resonance shows that besides believing in the expectation of interest rate cut, the market began to gradually believe that inflation is coming again, which leads to the strange phenomenon that interest rate cut and inflation coexist. Theoretically, when inflation rises, the Federal Reserve has no incentive to cut interest rates. However, with the current high bond stock of the Federal Reserve (with a total loss of US $114.3 billion last year), it will take about four years to "turn losses" even if the interest rate is cut now. Therefore, the market believes that the interest rate

The star stocks in 2023 are still shining in the new year. Driven by the strong financial report in the fourth quarter, NVIDIA jumped sharply and opened higher and reached a new record high. However, the performance of making up the gap on the same day still left some hidden dangers. Will this trigger the arrival of the US stock market correction?As we all know, the main driving force of this round of continuous slow bull market of US stock is AI stocks, and NVIDIA is the leading figure. After the Lunar New Year, the short-term deviation between Nasdaq and S&P was also affected by Nvidia's three-day consecutive decline. In other words, if NVDA shows signs of head, it will probably trigger continuous downward pressure on US stocks.Fundamentally speaking, the beautiful data and expectati

With the announcement of the resignation of the Palestinian government, the tension in the Middle East seems to have eased relatively. Although it is still not optimistic that the conflict in Gaza will end here, such emergencies usually prolong the ceasefire, so the upward momentum for oil prices is weakened, making the trend still tangled. In fact, this result is not unexpected. At present, WTI crude oil still fluctuates along the edge of the 20-week moving average.If it can break through 79, the price will be the support for a period of time in the future. If it cannot break through, it is normal to bottom out 70 or even fall below 70 again. After all, the oil price environment is a broad volatile market in the first half of the year, and the fluctuation of $10 is only a swing rather tha

During the Spring Festival holiday, the international energy market was full of ice and fire, and the international crude oil price rose sharply, but the international natural gas price fell sharply. Among them, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent crude oil rose by more than 2%, but natural gas prices in the United States and Europe fell by more than 11%. In the two trading days after the Spring Festival, the rise of international crude oil slowed down, which means that the favorable supply interference brought by the escalation of the Red Sea crisis is weakening.Figure 1: The price of 1: WTI crude oil futures April contract rose sharply during the Spring FestivalLooking ahead to the market outlook, we believe that the rise in crude oil prices has come to an end in the short term due to fact

In the past holidays, although most assets in the market I covered fluctuated to varying degrees, there was no sign of trend start from the final market results. First of all, on precious metals, gold tried a double dip and held its low level. There are two possibilities for the pattern of A-B-C in adjusting structure, the lowest or near 1930. However, considering the one-week reversal of silver last week, platform consolidation is not impossible. On the whole, in the rest of February, bargain hunting will be the main choice for gold. At the same time, it is also difficult for gold prices to quickly receive and pay the previous historical high of 2090. If tested here, it should be an opportunity to close long positions and possibly turn over.In crude oil, the market trend is not rapid, but

Looking at the tourism data of the Spring Festival, it is estimated that everyone has a good time this Spring Festival, so the market expectation next week will make us continue to be happy.During the Spring Festival this year, it should be regarded as the calmest Spring Festival market in recent years. The trend of various varieties is generally tepid, and there is no amazing fluctuation, which means that the fluctuation will be concentrated in the post-holiday market.During the Spring Festival, there are two biggest news highlights. One is the birth of sora, which will continue to boost the performance of AI stocks; Second, the Russian army has completely controlled the city of Avdeevka, an important defense hub in Ukraine. The victory of this strategic place means that Russia's control

Last night, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ recorded its largest single-day gain in nearly three months. At the same time, yields on various maturities of US Treasuries sharply retreated from their recent highs. Traders in the interest rate markets are betting that the latest signs of a slowdown in the US job market will ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further this year.Among them, the 2-year Treasury yield fell by 15.2 basis points to 4.905%, the 5-year Treasury yield dropped by 12.2 basis points to 4.282%, the 10-year Treasury yield declined by 8.1 basis points to 4.126%, and the 30-year Treasury yield fell by 4.6 basis points to 4.233%.Data released on Tuesday showed signs of a cooling US economy, indicating that the comprehens

Hi Tigers,Welcome to our Interview with Dream, a professional trader and content manager with 10 years investing experience. @程俊Dream has held positions as Content Manager at wallstreetcn news. He currently serves as a special guest strategy lecturer for multiple exchanges.Let's dive into his perspective on the gold futures and US stock market trend.1. Could you share your investment journey with us?I entered the financial market in 2007. In 2008, I was fortunate to capitalize on the first round of Quantitative Easing (QE) in the US, making a successful trade with the Euro. A more recent satisfying trade was in 2019/2020 when I went long on $Gold - main 2312(GCmain)$ after it experienced a

What goes down will come up, the same has happened to many stocks like $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ , I believe the same will happen to $AMC Entertainment(AMC)$  which is being hammered low to $10 or $1 (pre reverse split price).  AMC is a large cinema business with proper assets and provides entertainment service which public enjoys. While the business outlook is not very rosy (there are places where cinemas are ceasing their operation), the recent plunge in share price are too exaggerated. Hence, a rise in AMC share price

Following the latest Good News and Headlines, Chinese stocks have risen for two days in a row,But, as an overseas investment, no matter how good chinese market is, it should have little to do with US stocks. After chinese market being closed, US stocks will go their own way in the evening, so you should not be too excited.Historically, chinese market used to have two bottoms (calculated by index), one is the policy bottom and the other is the market bottom. With the current policy strength, the probability of policy bottom is very high, while the market bottom is often 2-3 months after the policy bottom, and a large part of the stocks at the market bottom will still hit a new low, so we should be cautious about itWill Chinese shares drive US stocks?It is definitely far from saying that Chi

Last week, under the news that the conflict in the Middle East eased, gold and silver bulls showed signs of cashing in profits, which triggered a sharp correction in gold and silver prices. The 5-day moving average tracking is very effective. After the "squeeze" trend of gold prices, falling below the 5-day moving average will often trigger a relatively large correction, and the correction is started by a single-day sharp drop, so last week's decline is very close to the previous trend, and it will break through 2450 again It takes a longer time to accumulate energy and cooperate with the news. The current gold and silver prices have entered a turbulent mode. Of course, turmoil is not a bad thing, especially for silver prices. After the turmoil falls, it will be a good time to enter the ma

Affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and fluctuations in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, the contradiction in risk appetite in the capital market has become increasingly prominent, and commodity prices have also entered a stage of high volatility.Taking gold as an example, the price of gold has experienced a correction after experiencing the "crazy growth" . On April 22 local time, COMEX gold futures for June delivery fell 3.01%, the largest one-day drop since June 2022.Two factors "suppress" precious metalsFor a long time, geopolitics has been the first factor affecting the prices of gold and silver. With the gradual escalation of tensions in the Middle East, the market's demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and silver has also increased simultaneously. Howeve

As speculated, news of the conflict between Israel and Iran has subsided, which has prompted a pullback in gold, and you may have to wait for a while to chase higher. For gold trading this year, the importance of finding a good time and a low position is relatively high, and it is not easy to chase ups and downs.The correction of gold With a long green line on Monday to determine a larger pullback/retracement time span, coupled with the more violent fall of silver (it has also been recommended to short silver and long gold to deal with this round of market), we expect gold to be short in the short term will not Reverse quickly.But how to judge the low point of the callback that everyone is more concerned about? First of all, it is certain that it is likely that it will be difficult for sho

On Friday, Israel appeared to be about to "retaliate" against Iran, causing crude oil and gold prices to soar and US stocks to plummet. Although both Israel and Iran soon came out to clarify, the Iranian side said that it intercepted the drone that attacked and did not cause too much loss, which caused a sharp retreat in the follow-up market.This phenomenon shows that the two sides of the conflict do not want to make things too big, but the financial market does not seem to buy the result, and the price fluctuation suddenly becomes very manic.The impact of the conflict on the US stock indexThe widening situation in the Middle East has weakened the market's sensitivity to news of the Fed's interest rate cut and increased concerns about war fears. Although there was a sharp rebound on Friday

Hello everyone! Today I want to share some macro analysis with you! Hope it can help you!1.Friday (April 26) gold prices rose significantly. However, the current market generally tends to be bearish on the outlook for gold, with the main concern being that inflation could trigger monetary tightening if it is not effectively controlled. The gold market is at risk of its first weekly decline in six weeks, a trend that reflects easing market sentiment and a shift in expectations for U.S. monetary policy. At the same time, recent economic data releases in the United States are showing mixed signals and increasing market volatility. $Gold - main 2406(GCmain)$ On the one hand, the data showed a sharp slowdown in economic growth, which usually suppor

With the release of various economic data in the United States and the speeches of the Federal Reserve Chairman and major officials, the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June has been extremely extreme.When we have been used to the good news, the small bad news will be particularly dazzling, which is exactly the case in the current market. March-May is another pricing of the Fed's interest rate cut path. The rate cut is not as fast as expected, and the market will also fall into shock, with different impacts on various commodities.First, the price of varieties with sufficient interest rate cut expectations began to fluctuateThe varieties whose price fluctuation is closely related to the expectation of interest rate cut are the varieties that have fully

In the first two months of 2024, the Japanese stock market continued to be strong, in which the Nikkei 225 index rose by more than 19% in the year ending March 5, while it rose by 28.2% in 2023. The rally was fueled by ultra-loose monetary policy in the Japanese stock market, which was further fueled by the magnification of overseas profits of Japanese companies in the context of the depreciation of the yen.In the short term, the Bank of Japan will not withdraw from QEE soon, and it will take time for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Driven by the slowdown of economic growth and loose monetary policy, the depreciation trend of the yen will not be reversed, and the Japanese stock market bubble will continue to expand. In the medium term, with Japan's inflation reaching the policy

At 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday, March 14th, the US Department of Labor released the PPI data for February, which exceeded expectations in terms of year-on-year, month-on-month and core PPI year-on-year data. Relaying the previous CPI data, it further continued to imply the stubbornness of inflation.Data show that the PPI of the United States warmed up beyond expectations in February, rising by 1.6% year-on-year, and the previous value was 1.2%.Far exceeding the expected 0.9%; PPI accelerated by 0.6% month-on-month,It is twice the expected value，The previous value is 0.3%.PictureThe core PPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 2% year-on-year, which was the same as the previous value.Exceeding expectations by 1.9%;The core PPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, which was less than th

When gold was in 1450 position, we had boldly assumed that the current bull market of gold could rise to 2200-2300. At that time, many people didn't understand that the Federal Reserve was about to tighten at that time, and there was no reason for gold to enter a big bull market. However, the power of the market itself (graph) still proves that the real relationship between supply and demand has been included in the market. Now, with the new high coming earlier than expected, we need to consider whether 2300 will still be the upper limit of gold.This is a picture that I like to show you in online and offline lectures over the past year, and it is also the reason why I have always been optimistic about gold. 2263 is the lowest bull market target price that gold can reach according to the pe

Just entering March, in the absence of obvious special news, gold, US stocks and crude oil all rose sharply last Friday night, not to mention the rapid upward trend of Bitcoin a few days ago. This trend of market resonance shows that besides believing in the expectation of interest rate cut, the market began to gradually believe that inflation is coming again, which leads to the strange phenomenon that interest rate cut and inflation coexist. Theoretically, when inflation rises, the Federal Reserve has no incentive to cut interest rates. However, with the current high bond stock of the Federal Reserve (with a total loss of US $114.3 billion last year), it will take about four years to "turn losses" even if the interest rate is cut now. Therefore, the market believes that the interest rate

The suspense in the US stock market has settled with the rising of NVIDIA, the leading eldest brother, and the risk appetite continues to support the upward attack of bulls. At the same time, crude oil prices also slowly made a breakthrough, It is particularly worth mentioning that after a wave of rising in the weekend, gold returned to the vicinity of the previous historical high point. The competition here is expected to determine whether the bull market can restart in the near future.The 2090 area is the key price of gold triple head before, and it is also the watershed of long-short conversion after the record high. Interestingly, this Friday will be a new non-farm day. According to past experience, when faced with key support and resistance, risk events will also be potential driving

During the Spring Festival holiday, the international energy market was full of ice and fire, and the international crude oil price rose sharply, but the international natural gas price fell sharply. Among them, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent crude oil rose by more than 2%, but natural gas prices in the United States and Europe fell by more than 11%. In the two trading days after the Spring Festival, the rise of international crude oil slowed down, which means that the favorable supply interference brought by the escalation of the Red Sea crisis is weakening.Figure 1: The price of 1: WTI crude oil futures April contract rose sharply during the Spring FestivalLooking ahead to the market outlook, we believe that the rise in crude oil prices has come to an end in the short term due to fact

Looking at the tourism data of the Spring Festival, it is estimated that everyone has a good time this Spring Festival, so the market expectation next week will make us continue to be happy.During the Spring Festival this year, it should be regarded as the calmest Spring Festival market in recent years. The trend of various varieties is generally tepid, and there is no amazing fluctuation, which means that the fluctuation will be concentrated in the post-holiday market.During the Spring Festival, there are two biggest news highlights. One is the birth of sora, which will continue to boost the performance of AI stocks; Second, the Russian army has completely controlled the city of Avdeevka, an important defense hub in Ukraine. The victory of this strategic place means that Russia's control

With the announcement of the resignation of the Palestinian government, the tension in the Middle East seems to have eased relatively. Although it is still not optimistic that the conflict in Gaza will end here, such emergencies usually prolong the ceasefire, so the upward momentum for oil prices is weakened, making the trend still tangled. In fact, this result is not unexpected. At present, WTI crude oil still fluctuates along the edge of the 20-week moving average.If it can break through 79, the price will be the support for a period of time in the future. If it cannot break through, it is normal to bottom out 70 or even fall below 70 again. After all, the oil price environment is a broad volatile market in the first half of the year, and the fluctuation of $10 is only a swing rather tha

The star stocks in 2023 are still shining in the new year. Driven by the strong financial report in the fourth quarter, NVIDIA jumped sharply and opened higher and reached a new record high. However, the performance of making up the gap on the same day still left some hidden dangers. Will this trigger the arrival of the US stock market correction?As we all know, the main driving force of this round of continuous slow bull market of US stock is AI stocks, and NVIDIA is the leading figure. After the Lunar New Year, the short-term deviation between Nasdaq and S&P was also affected by Nvidia's three-day consecutive decline. In other words, if NVDA shows signs of head, it will probably trigger continuous downward pressure on US stocks.Fundamentally speaking, the beautiful data and expectati

In the past holidays, although most assets in the market I covered fluctuated to varying degrees, there was no sign of trend start from the final market results. First of all, on precious metals, gold tried a double dip and held its low level. There are two possibilities for the pattern of A-B-C in adjusting structure, the lowest or near 1930. However, considering the one-week reversal of silver last week, platform consolidation is not impossible. On the whole, in the rest of February, bargain hunting will be the main choice for gold. At the same time, it is also difficult for gold prices to quickly receive and pay the previous historical high of 2090. If tested here, it should be an opportunity to close long positions and possibly turn over.In crude oil, the market trend is not rapid, but

Last night, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ recorded its largest single-day gain in nearly three months. At the same time, yields on various maturities of US Treasuries sharply retreated from their recent highs. Traders in the interest rate markets are betting that the latest signs of a slowdown in the US job market will ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further this year.Among them, the 2-year Treasury yield fell by 15.2 basis points to 4.905%, the 5-year Treasury yield dropped by 12.2 basis points to 4.282%, the 10-year Treasury yield declined by 8.1 basis points to 4.126%, and the 30-year Treasury yield fell by 4.6 basis points to 4.233%.Data released on Tuesday showed signs of a cooling US economy, indicating that the comprehens

As of August 16th, $DJIA(.DJI)$ has declined by 1.72% since the beginning of August, $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ has fallen by 4.98%, and $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has dropped by 3.29%, putting an end to five consecutive months of gains.Major indices’ pullback reinforces August curseAugust curse in the context of the stock market refers toa historical trend where the month of August tends to be associated with stock market declines or increased market volatility.Historically, July has been a bullish month for the stock market, but as August approaches, market volatility tends to rise.Market awaiting dovish news?The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City will host the 2023 Econo

Hi Tigers,Welcome to our Interview with Dream, a professional trader and content manager with 10 years investing experience. @程俊Dream has held positions as Content Manager at wallstreetcn news. He currently serves as a special guest strategy lecturer for multiple exchanges.Let's dive into his perspective on the gold futures and US stock market trend.1. Could you share your investment journey with us?I entered the financial market in 2007. In 2008, I was fortunate to capitalize on the first round of Quantitative Easing (QE) in the US, making a successful trade with the Euro. A more recent satisfying trade was in 2019/2020 when I went long on $Gold - main 2312(GCmain)$ after it experienced a

Following the latest Good News and Headlines, Chinese stocks have risen for two days in a row,But, as an overseas investment, no matter how good chinese market is, it should have little to do with US stocks. After chinese market being closed, US stocks will go their own way in the evening, so you should not be too excited.Historically, chinese market used to have two bottoms (calculated by index), one is the policy bottom and the other is the market bottom. With the current policy strength, the probability of policy bottom is very high, while the market bottom is often 2-3 months after the policy bottom, and a large part of the stocks at the market bottom will still hit a new low, so we should be cautious about itWill Chinese shares drive US stocks?It is definitely far from saying that Chi