U. S. President Donald Trump delivered a national televised address on the evening of April 1, unilaterally claiming a "swift, decisive, and overwhelming victory" in military operations against Iran. He also stated that the U.S. will continue to heavily strike Iran over the next "two to three weeks," while negotiations with Iran are simultaneously proceeding. His remarks have utterly shattered the market's expectations that the "U.S.-Iran war" could end in the short term. Moreover, his approach of negotiating while launching military strikes strongly highlights an anxious state within the Trump administration: attempting to stabilize oil prices and inflation while being unable to conclude the war quickly, essentially being dragged down by Iran. The situation has clearly spiraled out of con

Holding positions over this weekend is becoming a dangerous gamble Last week's rebound in risk assets was a flash in the pan, with equities and other long positions facing a renewed wave of downward pressure. As Trump's April 6 ultimatum approaches, the Middle East will soon deliver a short-term answer—whether it's a diplomatic agreement or a massive military deployment. Most assets are expected to choose their direction by late this week or early next, and investors must be particularly hyper-aware of the gap risks heading into the weekend. If the situation remains unresolved by Friday's close, holding positions over the weekend becomes incredibly risky.   $NQ100指数主连 2606(NQmain)$ $SP500指数主连 260

This past weekend was actually the calmest in recent weeks. Markets had expected the U.S. to deploy ground forces to seize Iran’s Kharg Island, but aside from strikes on Iranian steel plants, there was little major action. Overall, it was relatively quiet compared to prior weeks. However, actions of this scale alone by the U.S. and Israel are not enough to resolve the current blockade of the strait. The real turning point will come when the strait is reopened—that’s when a fundamental shift occurs. At present, the Pentagon appears to be aiming to replicate the rapid success seen during the 1990 Gulf War, hoping to quickly resolve the blockade within one to three months. Whether that is realistic remains to be seen, and only actual deployment will provide answers. But if even U.S. ground fo

First, let me update you on my recent trading moves. I haven't been particularly active in equities lately; instead, I've maintained a light short position on the Euro and locked in some profits from a crude oil bull calendar spread (buying the near month and selling the deferred month three months out). Currently, my dprofits are entirely concentrated in my futures account. Today, I closed my crude oil calendar spread position, booking a modest profit over the past few days. Remember our trading rule? "Rest during minor volatility, rest during extreme volatility, and no rest when there is no volatility". When a major risk event triggers massive market swings, our best approach in the futures market is to minimize our trade frequency, increase our win rate, and appropriately reduce our pos

A popular theory among traders is that US stocks rise higher in January than in other months. Appropriately deemed the January Effect, the effect is typically explained by traders entering position after tax-loss selling has completed, but over the last decade the effect has lost much of its visibility. Similarly, if stocks rise in January, the year will end positively in 85% of cases.US stocks had a volatile start to January, with the Fed raising long-term inflation targets, Trump following through on tariffs, and disruptions in the tech industry. The S&P $.SPX(.SPX)$ was buoyed by consumer spending coming in above expectations with inflation coming in at expectations.Oil prices peaked in the middle of the month at $78.71 following stronger i

The fundamentals of the oil market remains mixed, and there doesn't seem to be a strong one-sided trend. The recent rise in crude oil prices can be explained as a fluctuation from the low levels.Why did crude oil experience a bottom bounce?This is because low oil prices were stimulated by three major factors, leading to consecutive two weeks of price increases and breaking through the long-term downtrend and the MA 200 (moving average 200).OPEC+ continued production cuts.The rate hike is coming to an end after July FOMC.An important meeting in China that opened up possibilities for future economic growth.During the June OPEC+ meeting, Saudi Arabia voluntarily cut an additional 1 million barrels per day, which was a rare and significant reduction, the largest in years. The IEF Secretary-Gen

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2306(CLmain)$ $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2306(MCLmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2306(QMmain)$ The implied product demand moved lower for the week ending May 12/2023, led by a big drop in both gasoline and jet fuel demand. There is just so much noise/volatility in weekly data right now.ImageYTD (through 19 weeks) crude oil demand/supply breakdown compared to previous years.ImageCommercial Crude and Big 4 products are now up ~ 20.6m bbls through 19 weeks into 2023. They are ~27.6m bbls higher than the 5yr average (~7m bbls draw) and 69.6m bbls higher than in 2022 (~49m bbls draw).Imageprobably, one of the most bearish reports in

Mainly cpi is determined by fuel price $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2306(MCLmain)$  Oil prices have long been considered a leading indicator of inflation. When oil prices rise, it leads to an increase in the cost of goods and services, which in turn leads to a rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services. Therefore, if oil prices continue to increase, it will eventually result in higher inflation. Inflation is a major concern for central banks around the world, including the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed uses a variety of tools to manage inflation, including adjusting interest rates. The Fed raises interest rates when it believes that inflation

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Gold - main 2306(GCmain)$ $WTI Crude Oil - main 2305(CLmain)$ $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2305(MCLmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2305(QMmain)$ Bank Failures May Alter Fed’s CourseThe failure of two regional banks unsettled equity and fixed-income markets globally in March. Financial contagion risks were at the forefront of the financial markets as the closure of Silicon Valley Bank $SVB

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2305(CLmain)$ $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2305(MCLmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2305(QMmain)$ Its due to SPR, its due to adjustments, its due to exports/imports math, its due to refinery maintenance: never seen anyone do the same when we have crude oil draws. Built is a built.WTI crude for May delivery settled at $81.53 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up $1.79, or 2.24%. Highest settle since Jan 23/2023. Meanwhile energy equities Commodity price changes over the last year... Sugar: +16% US CPI: +6.0% Gold: +3% Silver: -1% Gasoline: -6% Soybeans: -10% Corn: -14% Copper: -14% Brent Crude: -15% WTI Crude: -15% Heati

$WTI原油主连 2305(CLmain)$ $微型WTI原油主连 2305(MCLmain)$ $小原油主连 2305(QMmain)$ North American Natural Gas Storage Levels for the week ending Mar 31/23: US Natural Gas Storage is 19% above 5yr average with South Central being 38% above 5yr average. Canada's Natural Gas Storage is 3% above 5y average.North American Natural Gas Storage Levels for the week ending March 24/23 US Natural Gas Storage is 21% above 5yr average with South Central at 42% above 5yr average. Canada's Natural Gas Storage is flat compared to 5y average. It was down ~15%, 5 weeks ago. Crude oil released from SPR was 1.6m bbls for the week ending Apr 7/22. ~2m bbls done, ~24m bbls to go.

BMO Capital Markets: $WTI Crude Oil - main 2305(CLmain)$ $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2305(MCLmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2305(QMmain)$ We believe that on average, oil sands producers should be able to cover their 2023 capital budgets at WTI US$37/bbl and base dividends at WTI US$46/bblThis is well below the average U.S. large-cap producer, which we estimate require WTI prices of US$48/bbl and US$53.50/bbl, respectively, in order to fund 2023 capital programs and dividends.