Buy the Dip in US Stocks or Chase the Rally in Other Markets?
Recently, $HSI(HSI)$ and European stock markets have performed strongly, with major indices generally rising. $Global X Dax Germany ETF(DAX)$ has risen nearly 17% so far this year, French CAC 40 index is up 11.5%, and the UK FTSE 100 index has increased by nearly 9%, while the S&P 500 was down 2%. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ entered the correction zone yesterday.
This positive performance is mainly due to increased government spending, especially in the defense sector. Despite potential impacts on the European economy from US tariffs on the EU, the European market has unexpectedly strengthened.
US stock valuations are too high. While US stocks have seen recent declines, they remain at relatively high levels. In contrast, $X STOXX EUROPE 600(XSX6.UK)$ and Hang Seng Index have lower valuations.
Government spending around the world has a significant contribution to GDP.
This year, the stock market performance differences between the three regions stem from the US slowing down fiscal spending, while Europe and China are accelerating.
As we enter 2025, after Trump assumes the US presidency again, reducing the deficit has become one of the US government's priorities. The market also believes that the declines in $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ and $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ have not yet ended.
In contrast, Europe and China are both accelerating fiscal spending. Europe has been increasing its defense spending, and major countries, including Germany, are planning fiscal expansions. China's recently released 2025 government work report also raised the deficit target from 3% to 4%. Some believe that $HSI(HSI)$ ould rise to 30,000 points. $Alibaba(BABA)$’s gain is also impressive this year.
Are you planning to chase the high in European stocks, Hong Kong stocks, or bottom US stocks?
Which market are you bullish?
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Recently, I’ve noticed an interesting arbitrage opportunity with Alibaba shares between the Hong Kong and US markets. For those unfamiliar, arbitrage is the practice of taking advantage of price differences for the same asset in different markets. In this case, you can actually sell Alibaba shares at a much higher price during daytime trading in Asia and then buy them back at a lower price during nighttime trading in the US market. This kind of opportunity doesn’t come around often, so I’m going to experiment with it to see how long it lasts. I’ll keep an eye on the market dynamics and share any updates or insights as I go along. Stay tuned!
Looking ahead, the US market still faces headwinds, especially with ongoing corrections in high-growth names like Tesla and Nvidia. Meanwhile, European stocks continue to show resilience, and the Hang Seng Index has room for further upside if China’s stimulus efforts gain traction.
For now, I’m keeping a balanced approach—monitoring opportunities in Europe and Hong Kong while waiting for better valuations in US stocks. The shift in global fiscal policies will be key in determining where the best opportunities lie in the coming months.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerGPT
Recently, $HSI(HSI)$ and European stock markets have performed strongly, with major indices generally rising. $Global X Dax Germany ETF(DAX)$ has risen nearly 17% so far this year, French CAC 40 index is up 11.5%, and the UK FTSE 100 index has increased by nearly 9%, while the S&P 500 was down 2%. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ entered the correction zone yesterday.
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Are you planning to chase the high in European stocks, Hong Kong stocks, or bottom US stocks?
Which market are you bullish?
Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~
为什么欧股、港股最近表现强势？
欧洲股市的上涨，主要受经济数据回暖、能源价格企稳，以及市场对欧洲央行降息预期升温的支撑。例如，德国DAX指数今年已上涨约17%，法国CAC40也涨超11%。港股则得益于中国政策面的持续托底，市场情绪逐步改善，南向资金流入明显。对趋势投资者而言，短期内欧股和港股的上涨动能仍在，追涨并非不可行。
美股的调整是机会还是风险？
美股今年以来承压，尤其是科技股回调导致纳指进入修正区。尽管市场下跌让部分个股估值趋于合理，但美联储政策、通胀压力、经济放缓等因素仍可能带来波动。我认为，美股的短期风险尚未完全释放，如果调整进一步扩大，可能会提供更好的长期买入机会。
我的选择？
短线可以顺势配置部分欧股、港股，但美股的优质公司依然是核心资产，更好的抄底机会可能还需要耐心等待。
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最近市场出现明显分化，港股、欧股持续上涨，而美股却进入调整期。恒指年初至今涨了近9%，德国DAX飙升17%，法国CAC40上涨11.5%，而标普500下跌2%，纳指甚至进入技术性回调。 这种走势不禁让人思考：现在该追高欧股、港股，还是趁机抄底美股？
港股、欧股为何强势？
港股的上涨更多是资金轮动和政策利好推动。经历了三年熊市后，港股的估值吸引力开始显现，特别是科技、消费、金融板块的回暖，加上中国稳增长政策的支持，市场情绪逐步恢复。欧股方面，欧洲经济韧性超预期，企业盈利表现强劲，同时资金开始从美股转向估值较低的欧洲市场，推动指数不断创新高。
美股是否值得抄底？
美股的调整主要受利率预期变化、债市波动影响，特别是科技股回调较深。但从长期来看，美股仍然具备较强的盈利能力和市场活力，一旦美联储开始降息，市场可能重新进入上行周期。因此，美股调整反而提供了逢低布局的机会。
结论：短线看港股、欧股，长线美股更具吸引力
如果是短线交易，当前港股、欧股的上涨趋势更值得参与。但如果是长线投资者，美股的调整可能是一次难得的低吸机会，尤其是科技龙头的估值回归后，未来仍有较大上涨空间。市场轮动是常态，关键在于持仓策略的灵活调整。
美股估值過高。雖然美股近期有所下跌，但仍處於相對高位。相比之下，$X歐洲斯托克600(XSX6.UK)$和恆生指數的估值較低。