Brazil 1M BTC Plan: 5% Bounce Sustainable?

Bitcoin rebounded over 5% after reports that Brazil’s Congress is proposing a strategic Bitcoin reserve, targeting accumulation of 1 million BTC over five years. At current supply levels, that would represent roughly 5% of total circulating Bitcoin — a headline-grabbing figure. However, the proposal still faces political, fiscal, and execution hurdles. Would steady sovereign accumulation tighten supply and reduce float? Is this marginal compared with ETF flows and macro risk cycles? Is this rebound the start of a structural bid or just relief in a fragile trend?

avatarTeeNP
02-19
Could be the way to go
avatarTeeNP
02-19
Could be the way to go

Tiger Rearch | Coinbase:; Maintain HOLD but Decrease PT to $170

By Tiger RearchCoinbase Global, Inc. (COIN, HOLD) - 4Q25: Everything Exchange Progress Continues as Near-Term Crypto Headwinds Emerge; Maintain HOLD but Decrease PT to $170 Coinbase reported 4Q25 net revenue of $1.71B (3%/2% below Tiger/Street), down 5% sequentially, with transaction revenue of $983M, down 6% Q/Q. While trading volumes softened modestly during the quarter, the more notable dynamic was pressure on retail monetization.Consumer transaction revenue declined 13% Q/Q compared to a 6% decline in consumer spot trading volume, reflecting mix shift toward Advanced trading and higher Coinbase One penetration.Adjusted EBITDA was $566M in 4Q (24%/15% below Tiger/Street) versus $801M in 3Q. Subscription and services revenue declined only 3% Q/Q to $727M, supported by record USDC ba
Tiger Rearch | Coinbase:; Maintain HOLD but Decrease PT to $170
avatarxc__
02-14

Brazil's Bold 1M BTC Reserve Bombshell: 5% Rebound Fizzles or Fuels $100K Fireworks? 🚀😲

Brazil's Congress just unleashed a crypto earthquake with its proposal for a strategic Bitcoin reserve aiming to hoard 1 million BTC over five years – that's roughly 5% of total circulating supply at current levels, a figure that's got traders salivating over potential supply squeezes and reduced float. 😤 Bitcoin bounced over 5% on the news, climbing from $82K lows to test $86K resistance, but the rally's sustainability hangs in the balance amid political wrangling, fiscal roadblocks, and execution nightmares like sourcing coins without spiking prices. Emerging markets add nitro, with Latin America's adoption surge pulling 10% more demand as nations like El Salvador's BTC stash grows 15% yearly. But macro risk cycles from Fed pauses and tariff teases crimp global flows 5%, raising question
Brazil's Bold 1M BTC Reserve Bombshell: 5% Rebound Fizzles or Fuels $100K Fireworks? 🚀😲

Why I’m Not Buying the Dip in U.S. Stocks—or Gold and Silver

The market’s focus is gradually shifting from gold and silver to U.S. equities, but we want to remind everyone that around the coming Spring Festival period, U.S. equities are actually the asset most in need of bearish “protection.” After a sharp sell-off, the U.S. stock market has recently seen a modest rebound, which is technically normal. However, I would not take this small rebound as evidence that Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, and U.S. equities have returned to a sustained upward trend. On the contrary, I prefer to interpret it this way: the volatility cycle in U.S. equities most likely has not finished, and this rebound looks more like a “covering” move within volatility rather than a signal that a trend has been confirmed. First signal: the DXY The first signal that U.S. equities may
Why I’m Not Buying the Dip in U.S. Stocks—or Gold and Silver
avatarReynor
02-06

VIX Rising, S&P Flat — Is a Crash Brewing?

Good evening, everyone.$Gold - main 2604(GCmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - main 2604(MGCmain)$ $1-Ounce Gold - main 2604(1OZmain)$ I’ve compiled the key points from the February 5 session into a ready-to-read transcript, so those who missed the live broadcast can easily catch up and review. $Silver - main 2603(SImain)$ $E-mini Silver - main 2603(QImain)$ $Silver - Mar 2026(SI2603)$ $Gold - main 2604(GCmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - main 2
VIX Rising, S&P Flat — Is a Crash Brewing?
Your question goes directly to the core of what determines Bitcoin’s medium-term price formation: who controls marginal supply. The Brazil proposal is symbolically powerful, but its real impact depends on scale, execution, and how it interacts with existing institutional demand channels. Let us separate signal from narrative. --- 1. What the Brazil proposal actually changes Recent reports indicate Brazilian lawmakers are proposing a strategic sovereign Bitcoin reserve targeting up to 1 million BTC accumulated over five years.  At face value, that sounds enormous: Total BTC supply cap: 21 million Circulating supply: ~19.6 million 1 million BTC ≈ 5% of circulating supply On headlines alone, this suggests a major supply shock. However, markets do not price headline totals. They price mar
avatarkoolgal
02-11

The Digital Renaissance: Why IBLC ETF Is My Gateway to the Crypto Frontier

🌟🌟🌟The financial world is no longer just shifting. It is being completely reborn.  We are standing at the edge of a Digital Renaissance, where the old guards of centralised banking are meeting the unstoppable force of the Blockchain.  For those who feel the adrenaline of the crypto market but seek a sophisticated, diversified way to capture its power, $iShares Blockchain and Tech ETF(IBLC)$ isn't just a fund.   IBLC is a front row seat to the future of money. While some traders are chasing individual memecoins into the abyss, the visionary investor looks at the infrastructure.  IBLC does not just buy the coins
The Digital Renaissance: Why IBLC ETF Is My Gateway to the Crypto Frontier
avatarMrzorro
02-13
Coinbase Is Down 60%+ Since July. What Its Chart Says Ahead of Earnings. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$   is heading into earnings this week at a time when the crypto firm's stock has fallen more than 60% from its July all-time high, has lost some 50% in three months and recently fell for 13 consecutive sessions. Let's see what technical and fundamental analysis tell us about this stock. Coinbase's Fundamental Analysis COIN is set to release Q4 results after the bell on Thursday, but its stock has been falling as Bitcoin has been falling. ( $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ is down some 45% from its October record highs.) The Street is looking for the company to report $0.66 in Q4 earnings per share on about $1.85 billion

Brace for a High-Volatility Market—Don’t Put Too Much Faith in Any Bounce

Since the crash last October, the weakness in crypto has not eased. With ETH breaking below 2,000 last week and BTC approaching the 60,000 level, the crypto complex has essentially been abandoned by the market. This also means its value as a leading indicator is no longer valid. After last week’s wide-range swings, precious metals are expected to enter a period of back-and-forth between bulls and bears.​ Using Bitcoin as the reference point, price broke below two key levels in a relatively short time: 100,000 and 80,000/75,000. The market’s rebound attempts have been feeble and did not even reach 100,000. Price has now fallen back to the lows from before Trump was elected; if this zone also breaks, there is basically open space below. This area also marks where many ETFs initially built po
Brace for a High-Volatility Market—Don’t Put Too Much Faith in Any Bounce

Market Crashes Across the Board: Would You Buy the Dip?

This week, the U.S. stock market has been nothing short of gruesome—a literal bloodbath and a frantic stampede. The Fear & Greed Index has now officially retreated into "Fear" territory. After a massive run-up, capital is fleeing the sector. $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ plunged 15.95%, $Western Digital(WDC)$ dropped 7%, and $Micron Technology(MU)$ fell over 9%. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ fell over 3%, marking a four-day losing streak with a cumulative loss of nearly 10%. AppLovin tanked over 16%, leading a broader retreat in AI application software. $Bitcoin(BTC.USD.CC)$ slid below $70,000,
Market Crashes Across the Board: Would You Buy the Dip?

Is Bitcoin Bull Run Over or A New Cycle Starting?

Bitcoin had gone as low as $60K, but we saw it rebound to around $69K to $70K over the weekend, and now it is hovering around $70,000 at time of writing. What does it signal? If the Bitcoin bull run over? or are we going to see a super cycle restart? What are the signs and signals investors should look out for? We have seen how the market react to Strategy earnings release, and it have kind of affected some crypto-related stocks, $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$'s next earnings date is confirmed for Thursday 12 Feb 2026 after market next week, so will we see how investors on Coinbase have been acquiring Bitcoin and if the trend is poised to continue. In this article, we would like to look at a disciplined way to interpret the $60K → ~$70K rebound and
Is Bitcoin Bull Run Over or A New Cycle Starting?
The proposed Brazilian plan to accumulate 1 million BTC over five years, representing approximately 5% of the total circulating Bitcoin, has indeed sparked a notable rebound in the cryptocurrency's price, with a 5% increase. To assess the sustainability of this bounce, let's break down the potential implications and factors at play. Sovereign Accumulation Impact: If Brazil were to successfully accumulate 1 million BTC, it would indeed reduce the float and tighten supply. This reduction in available Bitcoin for trading could potentially drive up demand and, consequently, the price. However, the actual impact would depend on how the accumulation is executed, whether it's through direct market purchases or other means, and how it's perceived by the market. Comparison with ETF Flows and Macro
avatarBarcode
02-06
$Strategy(MSTR)$ $CME Bitcoin - main 2602(BTCmain)$  $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$  🚨₿📉 BTC Enters Monthly Bear Cycle, $MSTR Breakdown Intensifies 📉₿🚨 I believe BTC has now entered a monthly bear cycle, and the transition from expansion into correction is now transmitting directly into BTC-proxy equities like $MSTR. I’m stepping back from intraday noise and focusing on higher timeframe structure because regime shifts register here first, and right now structure is delivering a clear message. 📉 ₿ BTC Monthly Structure Breakdown I’m treating the 118k to 127k zone as the likely cycle high f

Fed Turns Hawkish—Risk Incoming? A Silver Bear Spread Setup—and Why I’m Waiting on Gold

First, I want to share a screenshot from my previous analysis of silver and gold price action. In that earlier piece, I said silver’s short-term top—assuming the Fed did not turn more hawkish and there was no black-swan surge in the U.S. dollar—should be above 130, while gold could be headed above 5,000. A little over a week later, silver has already printed a new high, and gold has also surged well past 5,000. $白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $白银2603(SI2603)$ $2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares(AGQ)$ $白银ETF-iShares(SLV)$ $微白银主连 2603(SILmain)$
Fed Turns Hawkish—Risk Incoming? A Silver Bear Spread Setup—and Why I’m Waiting on Gold
The headline sounds powerful, but the market impact depends less on the number itself and more on credibility, pacing, and macro liquidity. --- 1. Would sovereign accumulation tighten supply? Yes, structurally, but only if execution is real and gradual. Bitcoin’s effective float is already smaller than headline circulating supply because: long-term holders rarely sell, lost coins reduce liquidity, ETF custody locks supply off exchanges. If a sovereign entity accumulates steadily over years, it removes marginal supply from the tradable market, which can: compress available float, increase price sensitivity to demand shocks, reinforce the “reserve asset” narrative. However, markets price actual buying, not proposals. Until purchases begin, the effect is mostly psychological. --- 2. Marginal

Strategy "21/21" Execution In Focus With Bitcoin Volatility Poised To Continue

$Strategy(MSTR)$ is facing a pivotal moment as it prepares to report its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on Thursday, February 5, 2026, after market close. The recent Bitcoin plunge below $75,000 has put the company's aggressive treasury model under its most intense stress test since the 2022 crypto winter. Here is an analysis of the upcoming results and the key metrics to watch. Q4 2025 Earnings Outlook The headline numbers for Q4 are expected to be messy due to the adoption of fair-value accounting for digital assets, which now forces the company to mark its Bitcoin holdings to market prices every quarter. EPS Consensus: Analysts are projecting a significant loss, with estimates ranging from $-18.06 to $-19.03 per share. This is a massive swing from the
Strategy "21/21" Execution In Focus With Bitcoin Volatility Poised To Continue
avatarDeonc
02-06

3 reasons why Bitcoin is falling

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$  $Riot Platforms(RIOT)$  $Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$  $iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$   Investing.com | Author Vahid Karaahmetovic Published Dec 31, 0000 07:00PM ET Updated Feb 05, 2026 10:00AM ET Investing.com -- Bitcoin tumbled sharply this week, extending a months-long downturn as institutional demand faded and macro pressures intensified. The cryptocurrency fell below the $70,000 threshold on Thursday, marking a 44% retreat from its rough
3 reasons why Bitcoin is falling
Is This a Healthy Deleveraging or the Start of a Deeper Reset? The evidence strongly points to a painful but necessary healthy deleveraging within an ongoing bull market, rather than the start of a 2018/2022-style bear market reset. Here's the breakdown: Arguments for "Healthy Deleveraging": The Nature of the Drop: The ~40% drawdown from ~$73.8k to ~$72k (intraday) is well within historical norms for a Bitcoin bull market. Corrections of 30-40% are common. The velocity of the drop is due to excessive leverage being flushed, not a collapse in underlying conviction. Structural Support from ETFs: Unlike 2018 (post-ICO bubble) or 2022 (Luna/FTX collapse), there is now a massive, structural buyer of last resort: spot Bitcoin ETFs. Even with recent outflows, the net inflow since January is over
$Strategy(MSTR)$   Based on the comprehensive analysis of Strategy (MSTR), the stock presents a complex investment proposition with significant volatility and cryptocurrency exposure that requires careful consideration. Sharks are in the water waiting to snap up Strategy stock [MSTR] by the droves at $104. Current Market Position and Performance: Strategy is currently trading at $106.99 (as of February 6, 2026), representing a significant decline of 17.12% from the previous close and a substantial drop from its 52-week high of $457.22. The stock has experienced extreme volatility, with a trading volume of 60.07 million shares and a turnover rate of 20.92%, indicating high market activity and potential investor