To The Moon

This week, ahead of the deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump, the U.S. and Iran reached a temporary two-week ceasefire agreement on April 7, brokered by Pakistan. Under the agreement, Iran consented to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for controlled navigation and submitted a "10-Point Peace Proposal," which includes the lifting of sanctions, as a foundation for subsequent comprehensive negotiations. However, less than a day into the ceasefire, Israel launched a surprise attack on Lebanon, causing the situation to deteriorate rapidly. Before the ceasefire could even take effect, conflicts escalated. Iran reacted swiftly, declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed once again and threatening to consider withdrawing from the U.S.-Iran talks.

Following this series of changes, the market's barely-soothed concerns over energy supply disruptions and inflation were quickly reignited. Capital had no choice but to repeatedly re-price various assets, resulting in significantly heightened volatility across equities, bonds, and commodities this week.

As of around 5:00 PM on April 9, 2026, the weekly performance of key assets is as follows:

In the current environment of frequently shifting macroeconomic expectations, simply tracking asset price fluctuations often leads to getting caught up in the noise of market sentiment. To clearly understand the market's true operational state, the most objective starting point remains tracking micro-level inventory changes on the physical side and capital flows on the financial side. Inventory data reveals the true strength of supply and demand for commodities in the circulation phase, while capital flows record the allocation preferences of capital across major asset classes. We might as well look at the key data for U.S. equities, U.S. Treasuries, crude oil, copper, aluminum, as well as gold and silver together. Compared to merely looking at price volatility, these inventory and capital flow data are far more telling.

1. U.S. Equities and Treasuries: Equity Outflows Slow, Fixed Income Pivots to Withdrawals

U.S. equity funds remain in net outflow: For the week ending April 1, 2026, U.S. equity funds recorded a single-week net outflow of $8.86 billion, failing to turn into net inflows. This indicates that equity mutual funds overall remain in a capital withdrawal phase, showing no substantive reversal in capital sentiment.

From a marginal perspective, the $8.86 billion net outflow for the week of April 1 narrowed slightly by $550 million compared to the $9.41 billion net outflow during the week of March 25, showing a slight marginal recovery. However, when compared to the massive $21.18 billion net outflow during the week of March 4, the current situation resembles a "temporary easing of outflow pressure" rather than a "large-scale capital replenishment," given that there have been no net inflows for five consecutive weeks.

$NQ100指数主连 2606(NQmain)$ $纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ $NQ100指数2606(NQ2606)$ $SP500指数主连 2606(ESmain)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $微型SP500指数主连 2606(MESmain)$ $道琼斯指数主连 2606(YMmain)$ $微型道琼斯指数主连 2606(MYMmain)$ $道琼斯ETF(DIA)$

U.S. Treasury funds pivot from net inflows to substantial net outflows: For the week ending April 1, 2026, U.S. bond funds recorded a single-week net outflow of $20.07 billion, a sharp contrast to the $810 million net inflow during the week of March 18. This demonstrates that within just two weeks, the direction of capital flows has noticeably reversed, with a very steep change.

From a marginal perspective, the week of April 1 further deteriorated by $16.98 billion compared to the previous week's net outflow of $3.09 billion, indicating that redemption pressures on bond funds escalated significantly in the latest week. If we view the mild net inflows in early-to-mid March alongside the massive net outflows in early April, this appears to be a rapid transition from "defensive bond allocations" to "concentrated bond position reductions," reflecting a clear short-term decline in risk appetite for fixed-income assets.

On the yield curve, as of the latest data on April 8, 2026, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 4.29%, while the 3-month Treasury yield was at 3.69%. Observing the recent trend on the far right of the chart (late March to early April), within the latest one-week observation window, the 3-month short-end yield (yellow line) has remained virtually flat, showing an extremely stable trajectory. Meanwhile, the 10-year long-end yield (blue line), after experiencing a rapid ascent previously, has recently seen a slight pullback and consolidation at elevated levels. A stable positive spread of approximately 60 basis points is maintained between the two.

2. Crude Oil: Significant Single-Week Inventory Build, Absolute Levels Revert to Historical Averages

• U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories: As of late March to early April 2026 (the latest data points on the chart), the 2026 U.S. commercial crude inventory curve (orange line) exhibits a distinct step-like upward trend. From a historical percentile perspective, although total inventories have climbed recently, the current overall absolute level (around 0.46M) perfectly aligns with the 2021-2025 historical average (white line), remaining within the normal fluctuation band of the past five years.

  

  Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: At Cushing, the primary U.S. crude oil delivery hub, the 2026 inventory curve (orange line) similarly shows a continuous upward trajectory. However, unlike national inventories, Cushing's current absolute level (roughly in the 30,000 to 35,000 range) is significantly below the 2021-2025 historical average (white line), placing it at a lower percentile within the five-year historical range.

  

From a marginal change perspective, entering March, both national commercial inventories and Cushing inventories (represented by the orange line for 2026) have displayed a pronounced upward slope. For the week ending March 27, 2026, EIA data showed that U.S. commercial crude inventories increased by 5.451 million barrels compared to the previous week; over the same period, inventories at the Cushing delivery hub also recorded an increase of 520,000 barrels. Synthesizing the chart data, North American crude has indeed experienced continuous accumulation in commercial storage tanks, causing the absolute volume of U.S. commercial crude inventories to climb rapidly from below-average levels at the start of the year to reach the five-year historical average.

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3. Copper: Elevated Absolute Inventories, Initial Signs of a Unified "Destocking Turning Point"

From the perspective of absolute levels and historical percentiles, as of the latest data in early April 2026, global visible copper inventories totaled approximately 1.317M (about 1.317 million tonnes). Specifically, CME copper inventories were about 0.588M (588,000 short tons), LME copper inventories were about 0.482M (482,000 tonnes), and SHFE (Shanghai) copper inventories were about 0.301M (301,000 tonnes). Over a longer cycle, from the second half of 2025 through the first quarter of 2026, global copper inventories underwent an explosive surge with an extremely steep slope. Currently, single-sided inventories across the three major exchanges, as well as total global inventories, have far exceeded their historical peaks from 2019 to 2025, sitting at absolute historic highs for recent years.

From a marginal change perspective, despite the extremely high overall watermarks, observing the marginal shape on the far right (recent) of the chart reveals a synchronized marginal reversal in copper inventory trends across major exchanges. After nearly a year of a straight-line upward climb, the global total copper inventory curve showed a clear downward "pivot" after breaching 1.4M. Breaking it down: LME, CME, and SHFE copper inventories all recorded varying degrees of week-over-week declines in the latest week (the most recent data point(s) on the curves show a downward trend). This marginal change objectively indicates that following a historically exaggerated accumulation, major global delivery hubs have recently ushered in a phased and synchronized destocking turning point for the first time.

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4. Aluminum: Overseas Spot Supply Dries Up, Domestic Inventories Skyrocket Vertically

As of the latest data in early April 2026, total aluminum inventories across major global exchanges stood at approximately 0.869M (869,000 tonnes). Specifically, LME aluminum inventories were about 0.412M (412,000 tonnes), SHFE aluminum inventories surged to 0.470M (470,000 tonnes), while COMEX aluminum inventories were merely about 2,192 tonnes.

From a historical percentile perspective, total global aluminum inventories remain in a relatively low historical percentile range compared to the 2019-2021 highs, but the internal structure has experienced extreme divergence: overseas LME and COMEX aluminum inventories continue to bottom out at historic lows, whereas domestic SHFE aluminum inventories have recently broken through their normal historical range, climbing to absolute highs for recent years.

From a marginal change perspective, the global aluminum inventory trend exhibits a stark divergence characterized by "domestic surging, overseas destocking":

1. Continuous Overseas Destocking: LME aluminum inventories (down to 0.412M) and COMEX aluminum inventories (only 2,192 tonnes) have maintained a downward destocking slope in recent weeks, indicating that overseas physical aluminum ingot circulation remains extremely tight.

2. Vertical Domestic Accumulation: Entering Q1 2026, SHFE aluminum inventories staged an extremely steep "V-shaped" reversal, skyrocketing in a straight (near-vertical) line from a previous trough of roughly 0.1M to the current 0.470M.

3. Total Inventories Pivoting Upward: Driven absolutely by the unilateral explosion in Shanghai aluminum inventories, the global total aluminum inventory curve (0.869M) was forcibly pulled up on the far right of the chart, ending a multi-year macroeconomic destocking trend and shifting into a rapid, phased upward pivot.

   

$铝主连 2606(ALImain)$ $铝ETF(ALUM.UK)$

5. Gold and Silver: Physical Inventories Plunge Deeply, Speculative Capital Reduces Both Exposures

• Inventory Side (Physical Fundamentals): As of the latest data on April 8, 2026, the latest value for COMEX gold inventories stood at 30.715 million troy ounces, while COMEX silver inventories recorded 325 million troy ounces.

COMEX Gold Inventories

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COMEX Silver Inventories

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From historical trends, both exhibit an extremely steep long-term downward trajectory. In particular, from H2 2025 into 2026, the destocking slope for gold and silver inventories has accelerated significantly. The absolute inventory volumes for both have now fallen below all low points from 2021-2025, residing in the lowest historical watermarks of recent years.

• Capital Side (Positioning): As of the most recent data, COMEX gold non-commercial long positions (blue line) stood at 207,600 contracts, with short positions (yellow line) at 44,400 contracts; COMEX silver non-commercial long positions (blue line) were at 33,500 contracts, with short positions (yellow line) at 9,559 contracts.

COMEX Gold Positions

COMEX Silver Positions

From a historical percentile perspective, the scale of speculative net longs (longs minus shorts) for both gold and silver has experienced a substantial drop from prior historical highs.

From a marginal change perspective, observing the recent marginal shapes on the far right of the charts, the gold and silver markets present a highly consistent pattern of "inventory depletion" coupled with a "bilateral capital exit":

On the inventory side, the inventory curves for gold (down to 30.715 million ounces) and silver have maintained a unilateral downward destocking trend over recent weeks, indicating a continued outflow of physical delivery warehouse stocks.

On the capital side, recent positioning charts reveal a clear trajectory of capital withdrawal. Non-commercial long positions (blue line) and short positions (yellow line) for both gold and silver exhibit a synchronously downward trend at the tail end of the charts. This marginal change of "bilateral long-short position reduction" objectively reflects that speculative capital is not simply turning bearish. Instead, capital as a whole is broadly withdrawing from the precious metals futures market and reducing risk exposure, causing market speculative participation to cool rapidly.

6. Conclusion: Track Capital Flows to Gauge True Inventory Foundations

Reviewing the key data sets for this week, it is evident that different assets currently present differing issues. U.S. equities and Treasuries are better observed through the lens of capital flows to understand allocation changes; for crude oil, the focus lies in the continued rebound of inventories, though absolute levels have primarily returned to near historical averages; copper has shown marginal signs of destocking against a backdrop of high inventories; aluminum stands out more prominently, characterized by low overseas inventories and rapidly rising domestic inventories; the situation for gold and silver features continued declines in physical inventories accompanied by bilateral long-short reductions in futures positions.

Looking at these data points together makes it much easier to understand the market's true current state than looking at prices alone. For commodities, inventories dictate whether there has been a shift in supply and demand pressures; for financial assets and precious metals, capital flows and positioning changes often better reflect the market's trading focus. If one only observes prices, many changes can easily be overlooked; however, when capital flows and inventory data are analyzed together, many clues become much clearer. Moving forward, what merits continued tracking is perhaps not the prices themselves, but whether these marginal changes can sustain their momentum.

That wraps up the data breakdown for this week. Do you think the crude oil inventory accumulation can continue next week? Let's sync up again next week.