To The Moon

Is H2 2023 the time for $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ re-birth?

All the stars are aligned though:

• Its stock price has been making up for the “lost” grounds (see above).

• For H1 2023, Meta stock price has gained a whooping +129.29%.

• At its YTD’s lowest on 18 Jan 2023, it was $133.02 per share, a shade higher than its lowest $88.91 on 03 Nov 2022.

• It no longer “harp” about the metaverse that has almost killed it.

• Most importantly, it has just been given a “new” lease of life (see below), thanks in part to mr elon musk’s excellent management of his $44 Billion price tag social media platform - Twitter.

Latest “Rumour”

• The internet has been buzzing with “rumour” that Mark Zuckerberg will officially be announcing on Thu, 06 July 2023 a text-based microblogging app.

• Aptly titled - “Threads”, it is poised to take over from where Twitter has failed (to launch) after taken private by mr elon musk last year.

• Threads allows users to follow the accounts they already followed on Instagram platform and (most importantly) retain the same username.

• The timing couldn’t have been more impeccable, coming just after Twitter announced a slate of restrictions on the app, including the need to be verified in order to use TweetDeck.

• Honestly is it really “new” Twitter restrictions or technical glitches? Cannot take his words at face value right.

What Happen To Other Alternatives?

Currently there are 3 alternative apps, jostling to replace Twitter, over gripe on (i) censorship concerns or (ii) free-app morphing into a paid service.

They are:

• Mastodon.

• Bluesky (brain child of Jack Dorsey and by invite only).

• TruthSocial (by ex President Donald Trump).

Unfortunately, none of them overtime has managed to outgrow and squash the blue bird.

Mastodon has between 1.3 to 2.5 Million active users versus Twitter's 237.8 Million daily active users in 2022.

TruthSocial and Bluesky are absorbing, opposing factions of a free speech schism.

Both run the risk of forming right- and left-wing echo chambers, in the process.

From a bird’s eye view, the 3 apps are basically 3 tribes running on survival mode, without the ability to command and control a massive crowd, dying for something like or better than Twitter.

How Different Will Threads Be?

• Being in the businesses of social media, this company knows what is entailed for a new app.

• Mark Zuckerberg and Team have set up a system purpose-built for a mass Twitter exodus, they are ready for mass-adoption.

• Likely a free service, it will supposedly link directly with Instagram & Facebook.

• This means most users won't have to create a new username to start posting.

• Considering Meta's track record, the sign-up process should be as simple as a couple taps on one's phone.

• Screenshots of the app's interface reveals that Threads will start suggesting accounts to follow based on a user’s Instagram records.

• This “seamless” interface is really built with integrated “user experience” at its core.

• Compared to the 3-tribes apps who does not know its “new member” profile, it has no choice but to leave its member to build a social circle from scratch.

• Perceivably, Threads' single main advantage is the sheer size of Instagram users, and a reported 2 Billion monthly active users (2021 data source). 

Statistics & Figures

What Are Meta’s Numbers?

• The plus about Meta is its experience & capability in scaling to sheer size.

• In the first months of 2023, at least 3.02 Billion people per day used a Meta app - either (a) WhatsApp, (b) Facebook, or (c) Instagram.

• Its “clone” of Craiglist & eBay app - Facebook Marketplace is growing at a slow-burn rate.

• Its “clone” of TikTok app - Facebook Reels has gained traction.

• A Morgan Stanley April 2023 survey found that Reels has at least 74% of Instagram users also dabble in Reels.

• Similarly, its “clone” of Snapchat app - Instagram Stories have been seen by at least 500 million daily users (in 2019), 3 years after making its debut.

My Viewpoint

• There is no other company more capable to displace & replace Twitter.

• In terms of compliance, Meta knows the rules, regulations and definitely repercussions with Mr Zuckerberg having been hauled before US senate and grilled until crispy charred.

• More importantly, I am sure Meta will have in-placed a responsive Customer Support structure in place to manage feedback properly.

• Having an auto “poop” emoji is definitely not a respectful way to treat an app’s user (that indirectly helps to bring in ad-revenue) and paying advertisers.

• What made “original” Twitter was its unique customer base that made the ecosystem “special & unique”.

• Original Twitter base consisted of (a) Artists, (b) Venture Capitalist, (c) Academia, (d) Writers, (e) Newpapers etc..

• It was really a “hotchpotch” environment that is on the one hand bohemian and on the other corporate.

• If Threads is able to bring all these fundamental “building blocks” under its umbrella once again, it will win the battle hands off.

• Imagine all the Ads revenue that has evaporated when elon musk took over Twitter, flowing into Meta’s coffer. Not too hard right.

• Let the battle begins.

Last but not least, is it time (for investors) to take a stab at Meta Platforms? Certainly, looks like it!

• Do you think Meta is capable to replace Twitter?

• Do you think Meta’s stock price will continue and surpass its peak of $372.26 per share on 3 Sep 2021?

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