To The Moon

Macro Strategy Weekly

China’s Rebounding Energy Demand Is Pushing Global Yields Higher: What Is the Best Options Strategy for Navigating a Range-Bound Market?

Weekly Strategy Summary

The key focus for markets this week is not to make a directional bet on any single asset. Rather, it is to monitor how the yen, crude oil, global bond yields, the U.S. dollar, and U.S. equities establish new inter-market linkages. The key takeaways from this week’s report are as follows. $Japanese Yen - main 2609(JPYmain)$ $WTI Crude Oil - main 2610(CLmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2610(QMmain)$ $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2610(MCLmain)$

1. The Yen Could Be the Starting Point for This Week’s Directional Move

The yen has broken through the key 155 level, with the next area of focus near 151. If the Bank of Japan raises rates as expected, or if Japan continues reducing its holdings of short-dated U.S. Treasuries to support the yen, further yen appreciation could weigh on the U.S. Dollar Index.

With expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes still unclear, the dollar may face simultaneous pressure from a stronger yen and policy uncertainty. The dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and U.S. equities could therefore come under pressure at the same time, while gold and commodities may find support.

That said, the area around 151 is also an important resistance zone. Japan’s trade deficit with the United States could limit further yen appreciation. As a result, investors should not simply make an outright one-way directional bet.

2. Global Yields Are Rising, and Markets Are Entering a Tight Equilibrium

Long-term government-bond yields in major economies—including the United States, Germany, and Japan—have generally moved higher, indicating that markets are repricing inflation, fiscal deficits, and term premium risk.

Higher oil prices, expectations of further global rate hikes, and rising long-end yields are likely to constrain U.S. equity valuations. However, corporate earnings remain supportive. The market is therefore more likely to remain range-bound at elevated levels before experiencing an immediate sharp selloff.

3. Gold Volatility Is High; Selling Puts at Lower Levels Is More Suitable

Gold’s near-term trend remains difficult to determine. A weaker U.S. dollar and yen appreciation are supportive of gold prices, but the risk of a pullback from elevated levels remains.

Investors should avoid chasing upside momentum or aggressively shorting gold outright. Instead, they may consider selling puts at lower strike levels around 4,000. Position sizes should be controlled and positions closed in a timely manner ahead of Federal Reserve meetings or major inflation releases.

4. Focus on Support Levels and Options Strategies in U.S. Equities

Nasdaq futures remain above their 20-week moving average, while the recent low near 28,900 can serve as a short-term risk reference point.

Given the coexistence of pressure from high yields and expectations of policy support, U.S. equities should for now be approached as a range-bound market. Investors may consider selling out-of-the-money puts on QQQ, XLF, or other high-quality underlying assets to capture time decay, while maintaining strict stop-loss discipline.

5. Crude Oil and Chinese Demand Could Change the Inflation Path

China’s crude-oil imports had previously fallen to multi-year lows. However, the spread between Shanghai crude and Brent has rebounded, suggesting that demand may be recovering.

If China’s imports increase, oil prices could rise further, pushing up inflation and global yields while weighing on the U.S. dollar and U.S. equities. Following WTI’s break above 93.5, investors may consider taking profits on crude-oil calendar-spread strategies.

6. Semiconductors, Gold, and Bitcoin All Require Careful Position Management

Semiconductor fundamentals remain supported by AI infrastructure spending and demand for computing capacity. However, widening CDS spreads and weaker token prices suggest that crowded-trade risks are increasing.

Gold is more likely to trade in a broad range for the remainder of the year. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is gradually evolving from a retail-driven cyclical asset into an asset increasingly influenced by macro liquidity conditions. The USD 60,000–65,000 range remains an important support zone.Overall, the preferred approach is to defend against drawdowns first and wait for a clearer directional trend.

U.S. Equity Market Review

Last week, U.S. equities were characterized by a modest pullback in headline indices, continued style divergence, and persistent constraints from valuations and interest rates.

According to the market-performance data in Figure 2, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) fell 0.69% for the week ended September 4. Only seven of the 11 S&P 500 sectors advanced. Energy (XLE, +1.40%), Financials (XLF, +1.13%), and Consumer Staples (XLP, +0.51%) outperformed, while Information Technology (XLK, -1.27%), Communication Services (XLC, -1.18%), and Consumer Discretionary (XLY, -1.17%) led the declines.This indicates that capital continued to rotate away from expensive growth assets toward lower-valuation, defensive, and cyclical sectors.

From a macro perspective, U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, significantly above market expectations, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The stronger-than-expected labor-market data reinforced perceptions of economic resilience, further reduced expectations for monetary easing, and intensified upward pressure on long-term interest rates.

As shown in Figure 2, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.789%, up 0.5 basis points for the week. Elevated interest rates increase the valuation discount-rate pressure on long-duration growth stocks, providing an important backdrop to the underperformance of the technology and consumer-discretionary sectors.

From a valuation perspective, the S&P 500’s trailing price-to-earnings ratio stood at 26.36x, according to Multpl, still above its 10-year average of 25.2x. This suggests that overall market valuations have not yet returned to their long-term midpoint.

Combined with the 4.789% 10-year Treasury yield shown by FRED, the equity–bond yield spread was approximately -1.00 percentage point. In other words, the equity earnings yield was below the risk-free rate.

From the perspective of a static yield comparison, U.S. equities still offer insufficient compensation relative to longer-duration U.S. Treasuries. High-valuation sectors are therefore more dependent on upside earnings surprises, falling yields, and improved risk appetite.

Sector-level valuation dispersion remains pronounced. According to World PE Ratio data:

• Information Technology (XLK) traded at 33.01x earnings.

• Real Estate (XLRE) traded at 31.44x.

• Health Care (XLV) traded at 30.47x.

• Financials (XLF) traded at only 16.36x.

• Energy (XLE) traded at 17.74x.

• Utilities (XLU) traded at 19.02x.

Accordingly, the market is not undergoing a broad-based deterioration. Rather, it is in a rebalancing phase in which high interest rates constrain high-valuation growth stocks, while capital favors lower-valuation sectors.

If long-end yields remain elevated, valuation compression pressure on growth sectors could persist. Conversely, a sustained upward revision in earnings expectations or a meaningful decline in yields would be more supportive of a further increase in the market’s valuation center.

U.S. equities pulled back modestly this week, but lower-valuation sectors such as energy and financials outperformed. Capital continued to rotate from high-valuation growth toward value and cyclical exposures.

With the 10-year Treasury yield remaining elevated at 4.789% and the equity–bond yield spread at -0.75 percentage point, the high-rate environment continues to constrain valuations in technology and other expensive sectors.

In this context, markets are reassessing asset pricing under persistently high rates. Elevated long-end yields limit the scope for valuation expansion. In the near term, U.S. equity performance is likely to depend more heavily on earnings delivery and valuation digestion, while internal market divergence is expected to continue.

Selected Community Views

@程俊Dream: Long-Term Yields Are Approaching a Tipping Point—Could Dollar Drop Another 10%？

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has gradually risen to levels close to the peak of the previous tightening cycle. It is foreseeable that, should bond prices become further destabilized, both the Federal Reserve and the market itself would face significant challenges.

In theory, changes in U.S. policy rates guide Treasury-price movements, which in turn guide Treasury yields. Put differently, policy rates should serve as the anchor. This year, however, long-term Treasury yields have clearly moved ahead of policy rates.

The 10-year yield not only decisively broke above its downtrend line in July but has since moved close to 5%. This level represents not only the peak of the previous Federal Reserve tightening cycle, but also the level seen before the onset of the 2007–08 global financial crisis.

Looking ahead, if the upward move in yields cannot be reversed, investors should remain alert to the possibility that rate hikes could arrive earlier than expected. The probability of a rate hike at the end of September remained close to 60% this week. If the next inflation release shows stronger-than-expected price pressure, expectations for rate hikes could rise further.

If rates are raised this month, the potential magnitude and risk of a correction in risk assets could increase materially.

Although rate hikes should theoretically support the U.S. dollar, stress in the bond market is fundamentally negative for the dollar. Therefore, there remains a possibility that a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” dynamic could push the dollar lower even after a rate hike.

On the U.S. Dollar Index chart, the key 10-year secular trendline has once again come into view. If that line breaks, there could be at least another 10% of downside. Such a substantial currency decline would weaken the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets across multiple dimensions.

We remain structurally bearish on the dollar. However, whether a decisive downside break will occur in the near term remains highly uncertain, and the market should be monitored as it develops.

Macro Strategy Takeaways

For this week’s strategy, the previously established long EUR futures position was entered at 1.1420. As the recent move gained momentum, the stop-loss had already been raised to 1.1570. The market did not break below that level last week.$欧元主连 2609(EURmain)$ $欧元指数(EURindex.FOREX)$

The bullish targets remain unchanged at 1.1770 and 1.2420, with half of the position to be taken off at each target.

For crude oil, continue to hold the long position with an average entry price of 75. The stop-loss has already been moved to the entry level to protect the position from loss, although a stop below 74 may be more consistent with the trading setup.$WTI原油主连 2610(CLmain)$ $小原油主连 2610(QMmain)$ $微型WTI原油主连 2610(MCLmain)$

Targets remain unchanged at 95 and 115, with half of the position to be taken off at each level.

For gold, neither the long nor short entry conditions were triggered last week. Maintain the pending orders this week:$黄金主连 2612(GCmain)$ $微黄金主连 2612(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黄金主连 2612(1OZmain)$

• Sell at 4,830 and 5,170, with half of the position allocated to each level.

• Stop-loss: 5,275.

• Target: 4,000.

For the lower-level long setup:

• Buy limit: 4,265.

• Stop-loss: 4,065.

• Target: 4,765.

• The long-side order is valid only during the week.

For other trading opportunities, investors may monitor the directional implications of crypto assets, although current risk-reward profiles for actual trades are not particularly attractive.

Note: Once the first target is reached, the stop-loss will automatically be moved to the entry level. Any changes after execution will be updated in subsequent articles.

@Ivan_Gan: Blowout NFP, Trump Pressure, and a Choppy Gold Market: One Strategy to Navigate It！💹📉

August nonfarm payrolls surged by 162,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 55,000. This exceptionally strong report once again disrupted market expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

The market had initially reduced its expectations for a September rate hike. Following the data release, however, rate-hike expectations regained the upper hand. At the same time, the November midterm elections are highly important to President Trump.

Trump is concerned that Federal Reserve rate hikes could weaken the economy and trigger an equity-market decline. Following the strong payroll report, he moved quickly to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut rates and threatened to restrict trade with countries that maintain trade surpluses with the United States should the Fed raise rates.

Such a situation has been uncommon historically. Markets have become cautious, and interest-rate expectations have ultimately remained in a fragile equilibrium. Investors should therefore approach the market prudently.

At this stage, the more suitable strategy may be options selling. Given that gold has already declined to some extent, investors can treat gold similarly to a stock and sell put options to profit in a range-bound environment.

The preferred strike should be near the previous low, around 4,000. Option tenors should not be excessively long. Although rolling weekly put sales may generate lower income, they carry less uncertainty. Importantly, positions should be closed before Federal Reserve meetings to avoid unnecessary volatility losses.$黄金主连 2612(GCmain)$ $微黄金主连 2612(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黄金主连 2612(1OZmain)$ $黄金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$ $2倍做多黄金ETF-ProShares(UGL)$ $2倍做空黄金ETF-ProShares(GLL)$

Trump’s comments following the strong payroll report suggest that pressure related to the midterm elections should not be underestimated. He hopes to use executive influence to prevent or delay rate hikes.

If U.S. equity indices were to decline sharply just before the midterm elections, the Republican Party would likely face greater difficulty in communicating its message to voters. From this perspective, U.S. equity indices may be among the more stable assets in the current market.

From a tactical standpoint, Nasdaq futures remain above the 20-week moving average. As noted last week, this level represents a near-term dividing line between bullish and bearish market conditions. As long as the index remains above this moving average, maintain a short-term bullish bias, with the prior week’s low near 28,900 serving as the stop-loss level..$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$ $微型NQ100指数主连 2609(MNQmain)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $标普500(.SPX)$ $SP500指数主连 2609(ESmain)$ $微型SP500指数主连 2609(MESmain)$ $标普500波动率指数(VIX)$ $道琼斯指数主连 2609(YMmain)$ $微型道琼斯指数主连 2609(MYMmain)$ $道琼斯(.DJI)$

Macro Strategy Takeaways

1. The U.S. equity-index put-selling strategy was paused last week and will resume this week. As long as equity indices remain above the 20-week moving average, put strikes should be set at least 7% below spot.

2. A small amount of weekly gold put options sold last week also generated profits. This week, the gold strategy can continue to sell weekly puts near the 4,000–4,100 area, with strikes not exceeding 4,100.

Owen: Selling Puts Remains My Preferred Strategy：Will Tokyo Set the Market’s Direction This Week?

Last week, the yen broke through the key 155 level. This should be understood from the perspective of exchange-rate quotation: a move in USD/JPY below 155 means that the yen is appreciating against the U.S. dollar.

More concentrated yen buying emerged around this level. Short-term bullish sentiment toward the yen strengthened materially, and the technical setup began to shift in the yen’s favor.$日元主连 2609(JPYmain)$ $美元/日元(USDJPY.FOREX)$

This creates direct pressure on the U.S. Dollar Index. The Dollar Index is not determined solely by the U.S. economy or Federal Reserve policy; it is fundamentally the relative value of a basket of currencies.

As one of the dollar’s major counterpart currencies, sustained yen appreciation can place significant pressure on the dollar. In other words, even if no new negative catalyst emerges specifically for the dollar, the Dollar Index may still weaken passively if the yen continues to strengthen.

Two factors are being priced into the yen’s rise.

First, the Bank of Japan is about to hold a monetary-policy meeting. Derivatives markets have already priced in a substantial probability of a BOJ rate hike. Markets generally believe that Japan is likely to raise rates, and that such a move may not be an isolated action but rather the beginning of further policy normalization.

Second, Japan may support the yen through the disposal of part of its overseas securities holdings, especially short-dated U.S. Treasuries. Data released by Japan’s Ministry of Finance show that Japan’s foreign securities holdings declined by USD 87.8 billion at the end of August from the previous month. The scale of the decline is close to the size of yen-support operations previously understood by the market.

Bloomberg analysis suggests that Japan may have sold more liquid short-dated U.S. Treasuries to support the yen.

Japan is a major overseas holder of U.S. Treasuries. According to Japan’s Ministry of Finance, Japan held approximately USD 1.1167 trillion in U.S. Treasuries as of the end of June, ranking first globally.

If Japan reduces its holdings of short-dated U.S. Treasuries to support its currency, the implications would extend beyond yen appreciation. Through Treasury supply-and-demand dynamics and higher yields, this could exert additional pressure on dollar-denominated assets.

The yen’s rise is not occurring in isolation. It is taking place against a broader rise in global bond yields. For central banks, the most direct response is generally to raise interest rates.

Rate hikes lift short-term rates, helping stabilize inflation expectations and attempting to contain or stabilize long-term yields. Interest-rate futures pricing cited by Bloomberg indicates a 99% probability of a European Central Bank rate hike on September 10, a 98% probability of a BOJ rate hike on September 18, and a 53% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike on September 16.

Accordingly, a key feature of the current global market environment is that major economies are generally leaning toward further rate hikes, while the expected path for Federal Reserve policy remains the most uncertain.

Trump has previously expressed a high-profile preference for rate cuts, raising additional questions about the Federal Reserve’s policy independence and future interest-rate path.

From the perspective of rate-market structure, a rate hike appears to be the more reasonable choice. If the Federal Reserve raises rates, short-end yields may rise while long-end yields stabilize, potentially easing the abnormal steepening of the yield curve.

In the short term, this could trigger portfolio rebalancing and a pullback in U.S. equities. Over a longer horizon, however, if markets regain confidence that the Federal Reserve remains committed to controlling inflation and preserving monetary credibility, confidence in dollar-denominated assets could instead be restored.

The problem is that the market cannot determine whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates. Nor can it determine whether a hike, if delivered, would be a one-off action or the beginning of another consecutive tightening cycle.

Precisely because the U.S. policy path remains unclear while expectations for a BOJ hike are more explicit, continued yen appreciation could become the most direct force weighing on the dollar.

If the Bank of Japan raises rates as expected and USD/JPY breaks below the important area around 151, the U.S. Dollar Index could break below key support under the combined effects of fading expectations for Fed hikes and pressure from yen appreciation. In that scenario, the Dollar Index could have room to fall by up to another 10 points.

Crude Oil and China’s Demand Variable

In addition to the yen, crude oil is creating a new source of uncertainty for markets.

One important reason that oil prices had not risen more aggressively was weak Chinese crude demand. Bloomberg statistics show that China’s crude-oil imports had fallen to a nine-year low in recent months.

Weak demand meant that oil prices had a fundamental basis for moving higher but lacked a stronger catalyst. More recently, however, the spread between Shanghai crude and Brent crude has rebounded, indicating stronger Chinese crude pricing.$WTI原油主连 2610(CLmain)$ $微型WTI原油主连 2610(MCLmain)$ $美国原油ETF(USO)$ $布油现金主连 2612(BZmain)$

If China’s crude-oil imports rise accordingly, oil prices could move higher still. Stronger oil prices would not merely indicate a hotter energy market. Higher oil prices could reinforce inflation expectations, push up global bond yields, and make U.S. inflation and interest-rate challenges more difficult to manage.

Macro Strategy Takeaways

The more appropriate approach is to respond through option-selling and arbitrage strategies, rather than making large directional futures bets.

Gold’s direction remains unclear. Selling puts at lower levels may be more suitable than directly chasing a short position in the current market environment.

For gold, maintain the approach of selling puts near 4,000. For U.S. equities, Nasdaq futures remain above the 20-week moving average, suggesting near-term support below. However, elevated yields also represent resistance above, making a range-bound market framework more appropriate.

Accordingly, investors may continue to consider selling QQQ puts below the prior low of 661.$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$

The previously discussed put-selling strategies for XLF and NVIDIA may also continue. In addition, because the current U.S.–Iran situation remains unresolved and refinery crack spreads are unlikely to decline materially in the short term, investors may consider selling lower-strike puts on refinery stocks, such as puts below the prior daily-chart low for Marathon Petroleum.

The previously implemented put-selling arbitrage strategy and crude-oil calendar spreads have already generated certain gains.

Perhaps the most worthwhile action this week is not to rush into trades, but to wait for the direction to become clearer:

• Monitor the Bank of Japan’s policy decision.

• Monitor the yen’s behavior around 151.

• Monitor whether U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise.

• Wait for Friday’s CPI release to provide new signals on inflation.$金融ETF(XLF)$ $黄金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $美元ETF-PowerShares DB(UUP)$ $SK海力士(SKHY)$ $南方东英SK海力士每日杠杆最多 (2x) 产品(07709)$ $南方两倍做多三星电子(07747)$

  

@顾明喆: U.S. Stocks: Will Semis Drag Markets Lower Again? Bitcoin: Escape Hatch or Bomb?

Whether oil prices can retreat and geopolitical tensions can ease will remain important factors to watch for a recovery in U.S. equity risk appetite.

$WTI原油主连 2610(CLmain)$ $小原油主连 2610(QMmain)$ $微型WTI原油主连 2610(MCLmain)$ $二倍做多能源ETF-Direxion(ERX)$ $二倍做空能源ETF-Direxion(ERY)$

Short positioning in the U.S. Treasury market is currently relatively crowded, with CTAs and similar systematic funds holding sizable short Treasury positions. If yields decline rapidly, short covering cannot be ruled out, potentially amplifying volatility in the bond market.

From an overall valuation perspective, the S&P 500 has not completely decoupled from earnings fundamentals. Corporate earnings growth continues to provide some support for the index. However, this does not mean the market is without risk.$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$ $微型NQ100指数主连 2609(MNQmain)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $标普500(.SPX)$ $SP500指数主连 2609(ESmain)$ $微型SP500指数主连 2609(MESmain)$ $标普500波动率指数(VIX)$ $道琼斯指数主连 2609(YMmain)$ $微型道琼斯指数主连 2609(MYMmain)$ $道琼斯(.DJI)$

The main near-term pressures come from two areas:

• Elevated long-term Treasury yields, which constrain equity valuations.

• September and October are typically periods of higher volatility for U.S. equities, with seasonal volatility patterns in midterm-election years deserving particular attention.

From a market-timing perspective, the Nasdaq remains in a corrective phase. If geopolitical conditions do not improve and oil prices do not decline, the scope for market recovery may be constrained.

Semiconductors: Fundamentals Intact, but Trading Risk Has Increased Materially

The investment case for AI infrastructure spending and scarce computing capacity has not been invalidated, and semiconductor-industry fundamentals remain supported.

From a trading perspective, however, the sector has entered a phase of sharply increased divergence between bulls and bears.

Two signals warrant particular attention:

• CDS spreads for certain leading AI companies have widened, indicating that markets are beginning to reassess the pressures arising from high capital expenditures and debt financing.

• Continued weakness in token prices also reflects, to some extent, forward-looking market concerns about the commercial returns from AI.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Defend Against Drawdowns Before Seeking Upside Opportunities

During the potential September–October window of rising volatility, portfolios may consider using S&P 500 or Nasdaq index put options to hedge against systemic drawdown risk.

For investors who remain constructive on the medium-term outlook but want to control costs, a diagonal-spread strategy may be worth considering: buy longer-dated call options while selling near-term out-of-the-money call options, and roll or adjust the position as market conditions evolve.

Bitcoin: Evolving From a Cyclical Asset Into a Macro-Liquidity Asset

The current Bitcoin rally has been driven to a considerable extent by short covering. Bitcoin also showed relatively strong resilience during the recent pullback in gold.

Its weekly technical structure and bullish MACD divergence share some similarities with historical bottoming areas.

More importantly, Bitcoin’s market structure is changing. Spot ETFs, Wall Street institutions, and bitcoin-treasury companies continue to lock up supply. Bitcoin is therefore gradually shifting away from its prior status as a retail-driven asset characterized by a four-year cycle, and toward a broader asset class more influenced by macro liquidity conditions.

From a medium- to long-term perspective, the USD 60,000–65,000 range remains an important strategic support zone. Investors able to tolerate higher volatility may focus on medium- and long-term allocation value rather than short-term price fluctuations.$CME比特币主连 2609(BTCmain)$ $比特币概念(BK4595)$ $比特币ETF概念(BK4594)$ $2倍比特币期货ETF-Volatility Shares(BITX)$ $Amplify Bitcoin 2% Monthly Option Income ETF(BITY)$

Across asset classes, investors may also further study the relative-strength relationship between gold and Bitcoin and use hedging structures to improve portfolio efficiency.

Macro Strategy Takeaways

A Nasdaq calendar-spread strategy may be considered.

Follow-Up on Last Week’s Strategy Results

@程俊Dream

For crude oil, the long position with an average entry price of 75 remains in place. The stop-loss had previously been moved to the entry level to ensure the position cannot lose money, although a stop below 74 may be more consistent with the trading logic. Targets remain unchanged at 95 and 115, with half of the position to be exited at each target.$WTI原油主连 2610(CLmain)$ $微型WTI原油主连 2610(MCLmain)$

For gold, the short entry was not executed. However, short opportunities remain the priority. Maintain sell-limit orders at 4,830 and 5,170, with half of the position allocated to each level; stop-loss at 5,275; and target at 4,000.

A new lower-level long pending order has been added: buy limit at 4,265, stop-loss at 4,065, and target at 4,765. The long order is valid only during the week.$黄金主连 2612(GCmain)$ $微黄金主连 2612(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黄金主连 2612(1OZmain)$ $黄金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$

Result: The crude-oil long position was profitable; the high-level gold sell order was not filled.

@Ivan_Gan

1. Last week’s U.S. equity-index put-selling strategy generated a 1% return. This week, equity indices are near the 20-week moving average. A confirmed break below this level could lead to a correction lasting several weeks or months, with a potential decline of 10%–20%, depending on the rate-hike path. Given the significance of data releases, no option-selling strategy is recommended this week.

2. Gold appears to have formed a stage top consistent with historical patterns. If nonfarm payroll data strengthen rate-hike expectations, gold could correct again toward 4,000 in September. Therefore, this week’s gold strategy is to sell a small amount of put options near 4,000.

3. EUR futures may be monitored again for a small short position, with a stop-loss placed near new highs. Because the stop-loss distance is relatively large, position sizing must remain light.

Result: Gold and equity-index put-selling strategies were profitable, while the EUR short position was stopped out.

@Owen_trading room

From a technical perspective, the prior low in QQQ can be used as a reference for selecting a lower put strike, with weekly options sold on a rolling basis.$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$ $微型NQ100指数主连 2609(MNQmain)$

For XLF, the strike may also be selected below the prior-low breakout level.

In addition, because the recent sharp decline in the semiconductor sector has released a relatively substantial amount of risk, investors may consider rolling weekly puts on NVIDIA below prior technical support levels.

Second, investors may consider buying long VIX exposure on dips. This can both position for a potential VIX rebound and partially hedge the risk of the bullish equity-index positions described above.

The U.S. Dollar Index is also worth monitoring. It has recently risen sharply and broken above its 20-day moving average. A break above the 20-day moving average in the Dollar Index is often followed by a meaningful daily-chart upswing.

If the expected primary advance on the daily chart materializes, it could create an opportunity to short the euro. The trade can be managed using the euro’s five-day moving average: turn bearish on a break below the five-day average, and stop out if the euro breaks above it.

Result: Selling low-strike puts on QQQ, XLF, and NVIDIA was profitable. Buying VIX on dips and shorting the euro were stopped out.$欧元主连 2609(EURmain)$ $美元指数(USDindex.FOREX)$